Thursday, May 8, 2008

May-8 Chinese sector is still a buy

First of all, I hope people here benefited from this rebound of gold from 850 to the current level of 882, I suggest you to closely track the gold future price and take some profits above 890. 900 will be a strong resistance and I'll simply using trailing stop on stocks and futures.

Come back to China A share, I believe this is not a simple rebound to 4000 and then game over. I would rather tend to bet on an uptrend back to 4700 area or even higher with help of Olympics and intensified infrastructure construction. I am not covering individual A-share stocks but I will reply individual question, if there is more than 10 people ask me individual A share stocks, I'll start A-share coverage.

Many people asked me about Chinese stocks trading at US, I am not going to cover them one by one, but in general, these stocks may spike once in next 3-4 months just like last year. During the next 3-4 months, I believe there will be a lot of shakes with more than -10% dump in several minutes. Please take these dumps as buying opportunities. In general, small Chinese stocks have this kind of pattern: Spike huge - pull back - spike and distribution - flat high level and distribution - dump and distribution - - rebound and distribution - dump and accumulation - flat and accumulation - shake and accumulation - spike huge and once again. It's highly risky to play with these stocks and you cannot really wait for another year when you 60% underwater. Bigger stocks like SOHU and CTRP may differ a bit: they act like a good A-share stock, higher high and higher low with high BETA - if you are not able to play swing, then just B&H.

During this uptrend of Chinese economic, I won't be surprised to see one spike per year for Chinese stocks.

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