Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Why am I saying it's time for strategic investment for H-shares

1. Low PE. PE should not be the only reason to invest but it should be a good reason. Once you have really cheap stocks around H-share, and you see China is booming for next 11-5 period, with many infrastructures that are going to be built, as well as many big projects, etc, you know low PE for Chinese stocks will not be a long term scheme.

2. Recent weakness. We have similar points compare to mid-2007s, while we have decent ERs ahead for major Chinese companies, I really see recent weakness is a good entry for long term investment.

3. TA-wise. We see major Chinese stocks are more or less standing above the major resistance, such as LFC, CHL, etc. The reason why market makers are not pumping them is just lacking of enough cheap chips. I am 100% sure they are accumulating now and will do in the next months, while global market is weak.

4. Many people say small factories in China now are closing their business. This is a good sign. We are now exporting electronical, machinery, communication devices, why should we still export these T-shirts? It's now for Vietnam and Thailand people to do this.

5. I am really happy to see the credit crisis. Without this crisis, I was really afraid of the over-hot Chinese stock market that may lead to a total crash, as well as the hot Chinese economy. Now we believe Chinese economy will be cooler than expected, so we begin to build rail ways, enhance infrastructure, increase local investment without worrying much about economy going crazy. At least, the market crash is postponed greatly and we won't see that in near future.

However, these assumptions are built upon peace, any war will break this. I think we don't need to worry about this too much because it is somehow out of our control and expectation.








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