Glad today we have a quite positive day although MRK drags down DOW for nearly 0.5%, which on the other hand, also reflects the good sentiment.
For this month and quarter end, we can see today as a window dressing day, as money institutes don't really want to see another negative month.
I was asked about stocks to watch, there are some of my picks which I think are buy now but were not mentioned last week.
WDC, NOK, MSFT, CSCO, LPL, BX, V, all with stop loss -1% below this week low.
Don't forget emerging markets stocks that I always love. :)
Monday, March 31, 2008
Mar-31 Weekly Preview and Month-end comments
If I am correct, we will not have a negative week, however, a doji or white candle stick are all possible. For TA wise, a big while candle stick for about 300 points on weekly chart will be quite bullish for mid-term.
For this March, if DOW close above 12266 today, then we will have a first positive month in five months, otherwise, this month would be the five negative month in row.
Today is month end, and also the quarter end, therefore, I am bet on the bullish side for today and at least DOW should have a doji on the monthly chart for March. Therefore, for the next 2-3 months, I am on the long side as it's somehow the time to recover from the low. My target until June would be 13300, which is 1000 points from now.
In a nutshell, I still believe we can some long position with 12000 stop loss on DOW. Please refer to my posts from last week for stocks to watch.
My wife is going home tomorrow from hospital. Things are going fine for her and it looks there is nothing to worry about. Thanks a lot for all of your best wishes. :)
Good luck.
For this March, if DOW close above 12266 today, then we will have a first positive month in five months, otherwise, this month would be the five negative month in row.
Today is month end, and also the quarter end, therefore, I am bet on the bullish side for today and at least DOW should have a doji on the monthly chart for March. Therefore, for the next 2-3 months, I am on the long side as it's somehow the time to recover from the low. My target until June would be 13300, which is 1000 points from now.
In a nutshell, I still believe we can some long position with 12000 stop loss on DOW. Please refer to my posts from last week for stocks to watch.
My wife is going home tomorrow from hospital. Things are going fine for her and it looks there is nothing to worry about. Thanks a lot for all of your best wishes. :)
Good luck.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Mar-28 What's for today?
Today I am not going to comment much as for recent two weeks I have been repeated several times about my recent market view. Today I would like to ask you to consider several points:
- How is the downside risk of previous market leaders?
- How far will be housing market fall further? Another 20%, or?
- Are many profitable emerging market stocks only worth PE around 12?
- Have most weak hands finished selling?
- Are shorters still confident enough to make big profits against the Fed and government?
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Mar-27 A-Share surprised me
A share PetroChina is totally a joke. I have to say the judgment on bottom around 3900 was totally wrong. But I am quite lucky on CAF due to the recent strength of US market.
I called CAF on 36.2, please use 36.2 for the stop loss position. However, given the sharp drop in recent A-share market, a decent rebound is right at the corner, the problem is when.
I feel the steel makers in China has reached the bottom, as well as coal miners.
H Shares look strong, I am happy to see I was not totally wrong on Chinese markets.
Anyway, we have better economic data readings today, and I expect the market we start to head north in recent days, which hopefully proves my suggestion on buying pull backs like yesterday was correct.
Let's see.
P.S. My wife is sick in the hospital and I need to stay with her, so I don't have time to track the intraday changes, good luck.
I called CAF on 36.2, please use 36.2 for the stop loss position. However, given the sharp drop in recent A-share market, a decent rebound is right at the corner, the problem is when.
I feel the steel makers in China has reached the bottom, as well as coal miners.
H Shares look strong, I am happy to see I was not totally wrong on Chinese markets.
Anyway, we have better economic data readings today, and I expect the market we start to head north in recent days, which hopefully proves my suggestion on buying pull backs like yesterday was correct.
Let's see.
P.S. My wife is sick in the hospital and I need to stay with her, so I don't have time to track the intraday changes, good luck.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Mar-26 Daily Market View
This pull back has it's first target on current level around 12450. Second target is 12350. Consider the bad durable good orders, the pull back is somehow inevitable.
Small position can be initiated around 12350, stop loss on breaking down 12100, add more chips when today closes above 12400.
This call is valid for stocks I mentioned yesterday and the day before yesterday.
Small position can be initiated around 12350, stop loss on breaking down 12100, add more chips when today closes above 12400.
This call is valid for stocks I mentioned yesterday and the day before yesterday.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Mar-25 Daily Update
Good morning everyone. I still don't have internet at home so I am not able to track the market this week. In general, the market will likely to have a positive white candle stick for March, and hopefully April and May. Therefore, any pullback in this week will be buying opportunities for mid-term.
Sectors in my radar are still:
Sectors in my radar are still:
- Emerging Markets
- Commodities
- Retailers
- Airliners
Monday, March 24, 2008
Mar-24 Weekly Preview
JPM raises bidding price for BSC, another interesting week coming.
Now many people think the uptrend is going to continue before July. I see several possible entries for following stocks and sectors:
1. Recent weakness of NOK is an opportunity.
2. Recent weakness on commodities is an good opportunities. Including gold. However, do not expect they will explode soon, they will go up any time before June.
3. In general, tech is a buy here, MSFT, CSCO, AAPL, GOOG and others.
4. Financial and home builders are still risky, please try to avoid.
5. Pay attention to natural gas and coal stocks.
I guess this week will have a while candle stick.
A share is shaking on the bottom, weakness is buying opportunity, such as today.
Now many people think the uptrend is going to continue before July. I see several possible entries for following stocks and sectors:
1. Recent weakness of NOK is an opportunity.
2. Recent weakness on commodities is an good opportunities. Including gold. However, do not expect they will explode soon, they will go up any time before June.
3. In general, tech is a buy here, MSFT, CSCO, AAPL, GOOG and others.
4. Financial and home builders are still risky, please try to avoid.
5. Pay attention to natural gas and coal stocks.
I guess this week will have a while candle stick.
A share is shaking on the bottom, weakness is buying opportunity, such as today.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Mar-20 Daily Market Preview
Today is the last day of OE, therefore I expect big volatility as well. I think this week will have a positive closing and I am somehow optimistic on global stock markets for rest of the month as well as April. If there is no one going out of mind to have war, which is really unlikely to my opinion.
I called CAF several times, it's still a buy here. I entered some position on 000898 AnGang and prepare to enter some more tomorrow if there is any dip. Today, the A-share acts in a positive manner with an obvious bottom out there. Heavy buying power stepped into in afternoon session. All blue chips reached a mid-term bottom. I see 601857 PetroChina hits the bottom as well, it's a buy with target 29. Many other blue chips are also good for mid-term and above 30% return is expected to my perspective.
In US markets, airline companies could be added to long position as OIL dips back. Long UAUA NWA here. For hedging positions, perhaps LEH is a potential candidate for short, but I need more time to confirm this. Regarding commodities, we still need to wait stabilization. I expect next week this sector will have some good entry points.
I am not going to update on this weekend but will come back on Monday, as I am going to Paris for vacation. Happy Holiday folks!
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Mar-19 Market Re-cap
To briefly re-cap the market, several remarks:
1. Taiwan and Tibet issues still drag down Greater China markets, late next week may be better.
2. A-share rebounded a bit, but won't have decent rebound before Taiwan election.
3. No war anyway, to my opinion. So I think positions like Taiwan stocks, A-shares, Hong Kong ADRs could be target for today and tomorrow. Consider the risk of war, a small initial position is recommended.
When people find there is no action for Monday Asian market, big money will relief and come back to stock market gradually.
US stocks is likely to test 12250 area today or tomorrow. Good long candidates are MSFT, ORCL and ADBE for your IRA, and other active Tech and Commodities for swing. By the way, SIMG can be added to your watch list. Financials can be shorted after they lead this market even higher, but not now.
1. Taiwan and Tibet issues still drag down Greater China markets, late next week may be better.
2. A-share rebounded a bit, but won't have decent rebound before Taiwan election.
3. No war anyway, to my opinion. So I think positions like Taiwan stocks, A-shares, Hong Kong ADRs could be target for today and tomorrow. Consider the risk of war, a small initial position is recommended.
When people find there is no action for Monday Asian market, big money will relief and come back to stock market gradually.
US stocks is likely to test 12250 area today or tomorrow. Good long candidates are MSFT, ORCL and ADBE for your IRA, and other active Tech and Commodities for swing. By the way, SIMG can be added to your watch list. Financials can be shorted after they lead this market even higher, but not now.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Mar-19 Quick Correction
As H-shares ADR has priced in almost 6% price hike for tomorrow Hong Kong market, please hold your fire without entering. However, if you dare to play ZNH, it is possible to rebound again more than 3%, but it's risky.
You can still play CAF if you don't have any CAF yet. Load 50% of your planned position on CAF today or tomorrow is an option.
Otherwise, consider commodities, such as miners, and my Brazil plays, such as CPL. As I called GTI in past days, GTI is also worth buying around 15.
Good luck.
You can still play CAF if you don't have any CAF yet. Load 50% of your planned position on CAF today or tomorrow is an option.
Otherwise, consider commodities, such as miners, and my Brazil plays, such as CPL. As I called GTI in past days, GTI is also worth buying around 15.
Good luck.
Mar-18 Daily Market Preview
First, LEH beats, GS beats, all as I expected, the market react positively as we see major investment banks are not all in trouble.
My strategy for GS call and C put should be slightly profitable. Although a more aggressive LEH call was not suggested by me yesterday. However, if you adopted this strategy, I would like to ask you monitor closely today as today's market will be highly volatile. You can just sell your GS calls on huge spike, and sell your C puts on big pull back. Then my last day's option play will be quite profitable.
As you can see now, my assumption yesterday regarding BSC may reject JPM offer has more believers as it is trading above 5$. :) I still do not recommend to touch it. We can just watch for fun.
Regarding CAF, no need to sell on such decline, I suggested you to load 1/3 of your planned position for CAF, I'll notify next 1/3 later.
If market close green, time to load a little bit FXI and Hong Kong shares to test water.
My strategy for GS call and C put should be slightly profitable. Although a more aggressive LEH call was not suggested by me yesterday. However, if you adopted this strategy, I would like to ask you monitor closely today as today's market will be highly volatile. You can just sell your GS calls on huge spike, and sell your C puts on big pull back. Then my last day's option play will be quite profitable.
As you can see now, my assumption yesterday regarding BSC may reject JPM offer has more believers as it is trading above 5$. :) I still do not recommend to touch it. We can just watch for fun.
Regarding CAF, no need to sell on such decline, I suggested you to load 1/3 of your planned position for CAF, I'll notify next 1/3 later.
If market close green, time to load a little bit FXI and Hong Kong shares to test water.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Mar-17 Daily Preview
Anybody put/short BSC on Friday, please raise your hand, you are genius.
The panic sell-off was just postponed, but not eliminated by the 400 points while candle stick.
The market will perform the way like it was in mid-November, it will be very volatile for this FOMC and OE week, and then will rebound later. I have 70% confident on this.
The market bottom is usually featured by bankruptcy of several big banks such as BSC. The question is, whether C and LEH will be next candidates? I don't know, but I can play.
LEH will report tomorrow, as a contrarian's view, I think the post-er market reaction will be positive, unless LEH report something similar to BSC, however, to my knowledge and source, LEH is not that bad. But we are not going to play on it.
A recommended option play will be call GS with put C, both near money OTM stike of this OE. Please note option play is not suitable if you are starters in stock market.
By the way, gold is now is 1023, while AUY was my only US stock recommendation in past week. Regarding CAF, just hold for another day or two to see what will happen on FOMC.
The panic sell-off was just postponed, but not eliminated by the 400 points while candle stick.
The market will perform the way like it was in mid-November, it will be very volatile for this FOMC and OE week, and then will rebound later. I have 70% confident on this.
The market bottom is usually featured by bankruptcy of several big banks such as BSC. The question is, whether C and LEH will be next candidates? I don't know, but I can play.
LEH will report tomorrow, as a contrarian's view, I think the post-er market reaction will be positive, unless LEH report something similar to BSC, however, to my knowledge and source, LEH is not that bad. But we are not going to play on it.
A recommended option play will be call GS with put C, both near money OTM stike of this OE. Please note option play is not suitable if you are starters in stock market.
By the way, gold is now is 1023, while AUY was my only US stock recommendation in past week. Regarding CAF, just hold for another day or two to see what will happen on FOMC.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Mar-16 Weekly Preview
I would like to draw your attention on my previous post again:
http://iamwym-stock-analysis.blogspot.com/2008/03/mar-11-market-update.html
It looks more and more like that we are in the similar situation compare to mid- November -- after a one day spike, we go down gradually to test new lows.
The more the government tries to save the market, the worse the market is.
Yes, next Tuesday is rate cut announcement, give the low CPI and terrible economy, I think it's no doubt we have a more than 50 BPS cut, and most likely 75 BPS, with someone even predicted 100 BPS.
For sure next week will be volatile, however, I think how many BPS cut is not that important to mid-term market. To my opinion, the global market is set to uptrend from April to June for reasons below:
http://iamwym-stock-analysis.blogspot.com/2008/03/mar-11-market-update.html
It looks more and more like that we are in the similar situation compare to mid- November -- after a one day spike, we go down gradually to test new lows.
The more the government tries to save the market, the worse the market is.
Yes, next Tuesday is rate cut announcement, give the low CPI and terrible economy, I think it's no doubt we have a more than 50 BPS cut, and most likely 75 BPS, with someone even predicted 100 BPS.
For sure next week will be volatile, however, I think how many BPS cut is not that important to mid-term market. To my opinion, the global market is set to uptrend from April to June for reasons below:
- There have been 4 months decline in row and there might be another here. It's very nature to have 2-3 months rebound.
- Rate cut in 2007 will show their effects somehow.
- The government has decided to save the market in a temporal manner for whatever reason.
- Cheap stocks are hanging around.
- Shorts have realized the downside potential is limited.
Friday, March 14, 2008
Mar-14 [CAF]
Yes, again, CAF.
As I expect, you will have chance to board after yesterday. Today Shanghai index tested 2 times for 3900 area with a low of 3892 and held. I think it's time to load CAF now and hold 'till June.
This is only market comment I have for this moment.
I haven't realized other opportunity in US to build a position longer than a month.
As I expect, you will have chance to board after yesterday. Today Shanghai index tested 2 times for 3900 area with a low of 3892 and held. I think it's time to load CAF now and hold 'till June.
This is only market comment I have for this moment.
I haven't realized other opportunity in US to build a position longer than a month.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Mar-12 Daily Market Preview
Based on the huge rally yesterday, we are more likely in the status of mid-November. So whether we have a while or black candle stick today and tomorrow will be an important aspect for future directions. However, in current market sentiment, near term downside will be quite limit.
More than 400 points rally is the first time in past 5 years, this kind of huge rally normally does not signal the bottom as during 2000-2002 there are many of them.
Today Chinese markets are a bit disappointing, while I think they may catch up later on if US markets still rise based on the power yesterday.
In general, I still believe we will see 2-3 month with positive gains, while the future is still gloomy. Unless we still very positive signals like housing market recovering or retailers and banks post gains, we still have to be very careful on long side.
Strategies for today is to watch the market to see if commodities, shipping and tech could be options for long. HK ADRs will decline a bit as yesterday they priced in much on upside, I see this is a buying opportunity if the US market stay positive today. 1-2 PM is my recommended time to clearify this trend.
Russian play includes MTL VIP WBD and RSX. MTL is more risky than others, while it has more upside potential.
For hedging long side, still, put bond insurers and retailers.
More than 400 points rally is the first time in past 5 years, this kind of huge rally normally does not signal the bottom as during 2000-2002 there are many of them.
Today Chinese markets are a bit disappointing, while I think they may catch up later on if US markets still rise based on the power yesterday.
In general, I still believe we will see 2-3 month with positive gains, while the future is still gloomy. Unless we still very positive signals like housing market recovering or retailers and banks post gains, we still have to be very careful on long side.
Strategies for today is to watch the market to see if commodities, shipping and tech could be options for long. HK ADRs will decline a bit as yesterday they priced in much on upside, I see this is a buying opportunity if the US market stay positive today. 1-2 PM is my recommended time to clearify this trend.
Russian play includes MTL VIP WBD and RSX. MTL is more risky than others, while it has more upside potential.
For hedging long side, still, put bond insurers and retailers.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Mar-11 Daily Summary
If you bought followed my suggestions this morning, you can have some profits now. Anyway, if you still out of the market, I suggest you to wait.
1. This kind of decent rebound occurred during previous months, but the question will be whether it can hold or not.
2. If you really want to long some stocks, consider gold stocks, or ADRs that do not rise much today.
3. If you want to short, please keep calm and wait for another rally.
I am not sure today's H-share performance has drawn some attention on you, as I just don't understand why people like chasing H-shares and singing Chinese great economy when the stocks are high fliers, but not picking up some when they are cheap... Maybe that's the reason why most people cannot make money in this stock market unless they hold for several years.
The US government tends to hold the stock market anyway, as they know the sinking stock market is the biggest reason for shrinking retail consumption. It looks like we still have a long way to go for this tough 2008.
1. This kind of decent rebound occurred during previous months, but the question will be whether it can hold or not.
2. If you really want to long some stocks, consider gold stocks, or ADRs that do not rise much today.
3. If you want to short, please keep calm and wait for another rally.
I am not sure today's H-share performance has drawn some attention on you, as I just don't understand why people like chasing H-shares and singing Chinese great economy when the stocks are high fliers, but not picking up some when they are cheap... Maybe that's the reason why most people cannot make money in this stock market unless they hold for several years.
The US government tends to hold the stock market anyway, as they know the sinking stock market is the biggest reason for shrinking retail consumption. It looks like we still have a long way to go for this tough 2008.
Mar-11 Market Update
Let's look at the figure attached.
The first scenario is the oval area on the left: We may going a bit further lower and then bounce up.
The second scenario is the oval area in the middle: We may zigzag for 1-2 weeks and then go down again to test 2006 low.
My suggestion for short term will be:
1. Watch YZC KOL, I think the sell-off of China coal stocks is almost done
2. Watch commodities, if signs of stabilization appear (it looks like today...), go long.
Entry point is a pull back after market open with stop loss -1% lower than yesterday's low.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Mar-10 Daily Summary
As I predicated, the market is now in sell-off mode.
The target is quite clear, like SP500 and NAZ, DOW previous low is not likely to hold.
Simple strategy will be lightly loaded with long position (around 1/3) after 2 days of big sell-off and sell before FOMC. Or simply a little March OTM call spread of financial sector, if you are a option trader. It doesn't cost much but give you good return. I guess the rebound is soon, could be Thursday. All we need to do is to wait panic...
After sell-offs, the market will bounce up a bit, then zigzag for a couple of days to wait for FOMC.
For mid-term: If 12000 is not firmly established after FOMC meeting, then 2006 low is right at the corner.
I still think the global market, including US, China and others, will be better in April, if 2006 low is touch this month.
The target is quite clear, like SP500 and NAZ, DOW previous low is not likely to hold.
Simple strategy will be lightly loaded with long position (around 1/3) after 2 days of big sell-off and sell before FOMC. Or simply a little March OTM call spread of financial sector, if you are a option trader. It doesn't cost much but give you good return. I guess the rebound is soon, could be Thursday. All we need to do is to wait panic...
After sell-offs, the market will bounce up a bit, then zigzag for a couple of days to wait for FOMC.
For mid-term: If 12000 is not firmly established after FOMC meeting, then 2006 low is right at the corner.
I still think the global market, including US, China and others, will be better in April, if 2006 low is touch this month.
Sunday, March 9, 2008
Mar-09 Weekly Preview
Today is my birthday, but it does not indicate the direction of the market next week at all. :)
By looking at the DOW daily chart, in worst case, we have to wait another 4 days before a decent rebound; while in best case scenario, the rebound comes tomorrow, according to the oversold financial sector. I successfully predicated the rebound of financial stocks yesterday, but the weak data terminated the rebound attempt. I guess another attempt will come tomorrow, let's see how it will go.
Anyway, I am not suggesting any bottom fishing tomorrow, as if the rebound fails, there will be 2-3 days of panic selling in next week, then the market will be extremely oversold. Based on current weather, any 3 panic selling will lead the market to 2006 lows, then I expect huge buying power will come and the market may reach the real bottom. Hold you fire and wait for that moment.
If the market goes up tomorrow, I suggest you to wait for several days. Next week is very essential for mid-term chart, any decline for next week will form a bearish picture while positive while candle stick remains hope for bulls. I expect the world equity market will somehow change to a positive mode around April.
Regarding A/H shares in China, any panic selling before Taiwan election will be buying opportunities. I don't believe there will be any war in any case.
I feel all the coincidences come together, most political/economical events signal a better April for global markets.
For candidates of bottom fishing, still, commodities, shipping and home builder.
By looking at the DOW daily chart, in worst case, we have to wait another 4 days before a decent rebound; while in best case scenario, the rebound comes tomorrow, according to the oversold financial sector. I successfully predicated the rebound of financial stocks yesterday, but the weak data terminated the rebound attempt. I guess another attempt will come tomorrow, let's see how it will go.
Anyway, I am not suggesting any bottom fishing tomorrow, as if the rebound fails, there will be 2-3 days of panic selling in next week, then the market will be extremely oversold. Based on current weather, any 3 panic selling will lead the market to 2006 lows, then I expect huge buying power will come and the market may reach the real bottom. Hold you fire and wait for that moment.
If the market goes up tomorrow, I suggest you to wait for several days. Next week is very essential for mid-term chart, any decline for next week will form a bearish picture while positive while candle stick remains hope for bulls. I expect the world equity market will somehow change to a positive mode around April.
Regarding A/H shares in China, any panic selling before Taiwan election will be buying opportunities. I don't believe there will be any war in any case.
I feel all the coincidences come together, most political/economical events signal a better April for global markets.
For candidates of bottom fishing, still, commodities, shipping and home builder.
Friday, March 7, 2008
Mar-7 How will market go amid bad data?
Definitely, the job data are bad, worse than my expectation, but more importantly, how will market react?
I think today is likely to be a sell-off day at first. It looks like most people think DOW will test previous low 11634 and many think 10800 is in the cards here. Yes, this might be possible but only god knows.
What do we do?
Recalling yesterday's market, we may have another round of sell-off for financial stocks, so is it time to fish some financial stocks? I would say, no stocks now.
"If you have short positions, you may buy some calls of financial stocks to hedge"
Please note, option play is NOT suitable for beginners. If you are beginners, the strategy will be, to buy some my commodity picks on the spreadsheet in any huge market sell-off, which is more than 1000 dip from its recent high. This time is 11600. Just be prepared with cash for 10800, if it really happens, this is probably one of the best opportunities in next 5 years for you to buy stocks.
I think today is likely to be a sell-off day at first. It looks like most people think DOW will test previous low 11634 and many think 10800 is in the cards here. Yes, this might be possible but only god knows.
What do we do?
Recalling yesterday's market, we may have another round of sell-off for financial stocks, so is it time to fish some financial stocks? I would say, no stocks now.
"If you have short positions, you may buy some calls of financial stocks to hedge"
Please note, option play is NOT suitable for beginners. If you are beginners, the strategy will be, to buy some my commodity picks on the spreadsheet in any huge market sell-off, which is more than 1000 dip from its recent high. This time is 11600. Just be prepared with cash for 10800, if it really happens, this is probably one of the best opportunities in next 5 years for you to buy stocks.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
Resource第五贴: Gold
一 : 黄金的基本面
谈黄金就一定要谈到经济, 里面挺复杂, 但最关键就是要搞明白两件事 : 黄金到底是什么? 黄金到底作什么用?
Question 1: What is gold?
Answer: Gold is money!
现在人们普遍把黄金当成commodity, 但黄金本质上是钱, 是真正的钱, 是不贬值的钱, 是真正的硬通货. 任何纸币都做不到这些, 它们本质上只是纸而已, intrinsic value = 0. 但为什么人们都把纸币当钱呢? 这是因为它们有buying power. 商品交易的本质是要等值交易, 例如两头猪就一定要换一头牛. 自从人们停止物物交易后, 纸币开始扮演中间的媒介. 纸币最大的问题是它的buying power不稳定, 时高时低. 例如: 石油几年前只要三四十美元一桶, 怎么现在要一百多美元一桶? 其实这几年石油的demand&supply一直都挺稳定的, 没有发生决定性的变化, 别看中国进口油年年增长, 全球石油产量可也是年年在大幅增长. 看OPEC最近决定不增产的理由就很清楚 : 石油供应足够满足需求, 不需要增产! 但油价可是发生了决定性的变化, 所以若油本身没变的话, 那变的就是美元的buying power了. 如果你用黄金来计量油价的话, 你就会发现油价根本就没变多少 : 几年前一ounce黄金能买约10桶油, 到现在还是能买到那么多桶油. 这就是黄金的独一无二的特点了: 不贬值. 一千年前的黄金从地下挖出来还照样用, 跟新开采出来的金矿里的黄金一个价. 纸币就够呛了, 没几个人敢把一堆纸币放个几十年的.
搞明白了第一个问题, 第二个问题就简单了. 古话讲 : 物以稀为贵. 黄金是稀有金属, 全球储量不大, 这就决定了它的高价值并且不贬值; 但它的全球储量也不很少, 足够各个国家都捏一些在手里并且流通. 太少的东西就没有什么实际的价值了, 只能挂在橱窗里给人观赏. 所以以前黄金一直是作为货币的基石, 跟美元直接挂钩, 一克黄金就一定要换多少美元 (从1935~1968, 金价固定为 US$35/ounce), 世界各个国家都是储备黄金. 但自从世界经济总量越来越大后, 黄金因为它的稀少性已经不适合作为货币的基石了, 后来就跟美元脱钩了, 美元因为美国的强大和稳定变成了各个国家的储备货币和全球贸易的结算货币. 美元过去几十年的表现倒还行, 一直算稳定. 但无论如何, 美元本质上还是纸币, 对其它国家来说还是外币, 没有哪个国家会幼稚到在国库里只放着美元的, 必然要同时放些黄金来以防万一. 事实上美国自己也是这样做的, 它的国库里的黄金储量比世界其它所有国家加起来的都要多. 所以在现代社会, 黄金的一个主要用途是作为国家的储备, 保证国家经济的稳定. 但因为历史的原因黄金的第一大用途其实是珠宝业 (jewellery). 工业用途也不少. 到2006年底为止, 地面上的所有黄金在各个领域所占比例为 :
1. 珠宝业(jewellery) : 52%, 81700吨
2. 央行及IMF等组织(official sector) : 18%, 28500吨
3. 投资业(investment)如黄金的ETF等: 16%, 25800吨
4. 工业(industrial): 12%, 18700吨
5. 其它 : 2%,
总计158000吨.
下面看看黄金的demand&supply.
市面上黄金的supply主要来自三块 :
1. 金矿生产
金矿在地球上分布得还算均匀, 各大州都不少, 但一百来年来一直是南非黄金产量雄居全球第一, 但从07年起中国超过它了 (这倒并不是因为中国的金产量增加了多少多少, 而是南非的金产量因为各种因素大幅下降而掉到中国后面去了). 现在中国排第一, 南非第二 (南非还是白金, 钯金的主要生产国, 全球80%的白金, 30+%的钯金产自那, 铀矿也多得要命, 也是一个上天垂青的land), 其它如澳大利亚, 美国, 加拿大, 南美, 俄罗斯等地产量都挺大. 近年来全球金矿生产量比较稳定, 在过去5年里每年约产2550吨黄金 (约合81.6M ounces). 一个新金矿从头到尾约需10年才能进入生产, 所以别看黄金现在涨得这么凶, 新的产量supply没法很快上来的. 2002~2006年间平均每年金矿生产黄金的数量要占到全年金supply的约61% (2239吨).
2. 回收 金(recycled gold or scrap gold)
别小看这一块, 2002~2006年间平均每年回收 金的数量要占到全年金supply的约25% (926吨).
3. 各国央行和IMF的出售
世界各国央行及一些超国界组织(例如国际货币基金组织IMF)持有总共黄金总量占地面上所有黄金总量的1/5, 约31000吨, 即992M ounces. 总体上他们自89年起一直在向市场出售他们的黄金储备. 2002~2006年间平均每年各国央行和IMF出售黄金的数量要占到全年金supply的约14% (527吨). 当然, 有很多央行在卖, 也有些央行在买. 例如中国, 日本, 印度, 俄罗斯等国央行就一直在买黄金来增加储备. 各个国家的黄金储备量相差悬殊, 但平均下来也有10%, 就是说一个国家的黄金储备要占到该国金融总储备的10%. 这个数字很重要, 看中国的情况就明白了. 中国现在的外汇储备已近1.6万亿美元, 按现在黄金$1000/ounce算, 这相当于1600M ounce gold, 也就是50000吨黄金, 按这10%的平均数来算也意味着中国起码要把这笔钱的10%转换成黄金储备, 那就是5000吨. 中国现在的黄金储备我记得没错的话应该是只有500吨左右, 相差非常巨大. 所以下面几年里中国官方政府的购买需求是支持金价的重要因素. 随着中国经济的日益上升, 中国民间的购买需求肯定也是越来越大的, 毕竟中国的通货膨胀率摆在那, 大家都觉得慌. 还是那句话 : 中国缺的东西你就等着看坐地起价了.
再看看黄金的demand. 东亚, 印度和中东就占了全世界gold demand的70%. demand排前五的国家分别为 : 印度, 意大利, 土耳其, 美国, 中国, 它们合起来共占世界 demand的53%, 印度一家就占了22%. 具体到行业去, 市面上黄金的demand主要来自三块 :
1. 珠宝业 (jewellery)
2002~2006年间平均每年珠宝业要占到该年黄金总需求的69% (2548吨). 经济上升时人们会更多的购买黄金珠宝等装饰物, 经济下降时人们会购买黄金珠宝等来保值, 总之任何时候都需要.
2. 投资业 (investment)
2002~2006年间平均每年投资业要占到该年黄金总需求的19% (703吨), 平均每年增长幅度为45%, 个人和机构投资者都在蜂拥而入, 在现有全球经济前景下这个增长速率还会加快. 从世界各国历史看过去都是一样: 只要出现uncertainty and instability, 人们就会开始买黄金了.
3. 工业 (industry)
2002~2006年间平均每年工业要占到该年黄金总需求的12% (441吨). 黄金的几个优异物理化学特性: high thermal, electrical conductivity, anti-corrosion, 决定了它有广泛的工业用途. 超过一半的工业用金是用在电子工业, 其它还有: medical applications (别忘了你口里的金牙, 哈哈), biomedical applications, chemical applications, 等等.
呵呵, 庄子说: 无用之用, 方为大用. 黄金这看似无用的东西 (不能吃, 不能穿, 也不能盖房子) 是对这句话的最好注解. 希望秋月有机会看到这篇贴子后能明白黄金到底有什么用.
二: 黄金价格未来的走势
从经济的角度讲, 黄金的主要功能是跟美元对冲和抵制通货膨胀. 美元跌必然导致黄金涨, 但哪天美元不跌了或开涨了也不意味着黄金就一定开跌, 美元黄金同时涨的事过去屡见不鲜. 再谈通货膨胀的事, 世界经济从90年代初开始的这一轮扩张热潮导致各种commodity&material价格大幅上升, 这导致商品价格大幅上涨, 再导致通货膨胀, 就意味着纸钱buying power下降, 这时黄金就是避免纸钱贬值的必然选择之一. 世界各国现在都面临通货膨胀大幅上升的问题, 这个问题短期(1~3年内)不光没有缓解的迹象, 反而面临着继续加速的趋势. 这决定了黄金的大趋势必然是向上, 直到通货膨胀缓解为止.
别看欧元现在很风光的样子, 好象要取代美元的架势, 但欧洲的经济摆在那, 还是靠捧着美国大腿混饭吃. 美国经济好它也跟着喝汤, 美国经济不好它就跟着完蛋, 更别提政治上的关系了. 所以永远轮不到它来取代美元. 事实上可以说: 美国的政治, 经济, 军事, 这三样东西要同时完蛋美国才是真正完了, 美元也就完了, 到那一天的时候其他国家和货币肯定也差不多了, 这三样只要有一样没完美国和美元就完不了. 这也是为什么黄金没有真正发疯, 彪到几千美元一盎司 (什么才算发疯? 1979年下半年到1980年一月才半年时间黄金就从330美元左右彪到843美元, 呵呵, 那才叫发疯). 至于美国会不会完蛋, 天知道, 但多半不会.
看太远谁都没把握, 就说08年吧. 美国经济前景不明郎, 会不会衰退, 若衰退会有多严重及持续多久现在谁都说不清, 只能走一步看一步, 但毫无疑问美元会继续疲软,通货膨胀继续扩大, TA上看好象在一千这个关口要调整似的, 但从基本面来看要越过这个关口是轻而易举的事, 所以那些手脚不够快, 不善于short的新手最好sidelined, 别跟着别人跟黄金过不去. 正确的作法该是在它回调时择机买入而不是空它. 黄金07年上涨了32%, 08年到目前为止15%, 才两个月. 到年底的话起码再涨个20% ~ 30% 吧, 呵呵, 所以金价我先看到$1200~1300 这一线 (提醒一声: 这也意味着油价有可能会到$120~130左右. 其实过去40年的平均值一直是一ounce黄金约等于15桶油, 只是从近几年开始降到约10桶油. 原因无非下面两者之一 : 石油涨得太多或者黄金涨得不够多, 我觉得是黄金涨得不够多的可能性更大些, 所以这就意味着黄金需要价值回归, 上升空间还很大. 所以黄金若回归到等值于15桶油时, 就算油价降到$80/bbl, 黄金也会相当于$1200/ounce). 当然这不意味着黄金会一条直线上升, 回调一定会有的. 短期一个很大的压力是美国和欧洲的央行, 还有IMF, 都打算出售一部分黄金储备, 这对市场毫无疑问会有冲击. 黄金投资者应该关注这方面的新闻, 但这个销售绝改变不了黄金的总体趋势. 还有美国肯定不希望美元跌得太快, 也就意味着它不希望黄金涨得太快, 总会搞些手段的, 但这个也改变不了黄金的总体趋势. 只要美国经济没好转, 世界通货膨胀没抑制住, 黄金的趋势就变不了. 别觉得金价$1300很疯狂, 看看commodity大师Jim Rogers的预测 : $3500/ounce, 呵呵, 觉得如何?
我在resource第一贴里把黄金的投资价值按稳当性排在第五, 是因为当时还不确定美国经济的走势, 所以当时说黄金上下的可能各是50-50, 现在几个月过去了, 各种经济数据也出了不少了, 现在我的新判断是把黄金排位上升到第二, 即 :
Moly > Gold > Uranium > Base metals > Oil
金的向上向下可能性分别为 : 90% : 10%. 其它种类的维持不变. 这也算是对我以前判断的一个update吧.
三 : 金矿等级的一点常识
金矿规模分三个等级 : 大, 中, 小.
大型金矿 : 含金量 > 800吨, 约合25.6M ounces
中型金矿 : 含金量 50 ~ 800吨, 约合1.6 ~ 25.6M ounces
小型金矿 : 含金量 10 ~ 50吨, 约合0.32 ~ 1.6M ounces
再小的就没有开采价值了. 现在已经没有尚未开挖的大型金矿了. 尚未开挖的里面有个10M ounces的就是很大的矿了. 在七八十年代的挖矿热中, 绝大部分tier 1的金矿都给挖了(tier 1的矿是指那些处于附近有infrastructure的矿, 方便开采及运出来). 剩下的都是些tier 2的矿(tier 2的矿是指那些处于偏远的地方, 没人迹, 甚至没道路, 附近没有infrastructure的矿, 开采这种矿成本极大, 经常是靠直升机进出, 可想而知).
金在自然界主要存在于两种形式 : prime product 和其它矿的byproduct (主要来自于铜矿和银矿). 金矿石的grade差别很大, 来自于byproduct的金矿石显然grade很低, 来自铜矿的一般在0.x~2g/ton, 来自银矿的一般在1.5~3g/ton, 来自于prime product的金矿石grade就高多了, 一般在5~25g/ton. 看一个新挖到的金矿脉够不够significant很重要, 不是说只要在地下挖到了金矿就一定有价值. 你看看那些金矿公司报告新挖到的矿脉时一定是要报告两个数据的 : grade and length. 第二个数据是指的矿脉的延伸长度, 太短的是没用的, 没有开采价值. 有一个简单方法来判断挖到的金矿脉到底有没有价值 : grade * length >= 300. 例如 : grade=10g/ton, length=40m, 这样grade * length=400 > 300, 这个金脉就是有开采价值的, 反之如果小于300就是没开采价值的.
四 : 金矿估价的一点常识
假如有人告诉你这块地底下探明有多少多少的金子, 现在想把这块地卖给你, 你愿出多少钱呢? 或者一个上市金矿公司公布自己有多少多少的reserve, 我们怎么估算该公司的fair value呢? 估算一个金矿的价值取决于多个因素. 首先要知道的是开挖一个金矿的cost, tier 1的矿挖采的行业标准cost是$350~400/ounce, 高于这个线, 例如到了$500/ounce, 那就是cost很高了, 公司的利润很小. 低于这个线, 例如到$150~200/ounce, 那就是cost很低了, 公司的利润很大. Grade高的矿显然开矿cost低, Grade低的矿显然开矿cost高. Cost还取决于矿的地理位置, 附近有没有电网, 道路及运输条件如何, 当地的薪金水平, 税率, 有没政府补贴等等各种大大小小的因素. 如果是tier 2的矿那代价就高了, 到六七百一盎司甚至更高都正常, 储量再大都没用, 在目前的金价下就是陪钱的买卖, 只能先搁着等哪年金价涨到开挖有利可图的时候. 小公司的Cost一般低些, 大公司的Cost一般高些.
看金矿公司的ER里经常看到它们的cost出奇的低甚至是负的, 这是因为他们把挖金矿同时挖到的byproduct (例如银或铜或其它金属) 的价值也打入了cost里, 例如挖出一吨矿石里金有多少克, byproduct有多少克, 这些byproduct所值的钱就能抵消一部分cost. 但这种byproduct高的矿石里含金量一般都比较低. 算到最后, 这个矿到底是算铜矿还是算金矿都说不清了.
第二个要知道的是一个金矿的intrinsic value. 这就是要回答开头的那两个问题. 这里也有个简单方法来计算: $150/ounce for gold reserve, $50/ounce for gold resource. 这就是说, 假如有人告诉你这块地底下探明有1M ounces的gold reserve, 那么这块地就至少值$150M. 一个上市金矿公司公布自己共有1M ounces的gold reserve 和1M ounces的gold resource, 那么该公司股票的fair value就至少是$150M+$50M=$200M. reserve 和resource差别是前者是确切探明出来的, 后者是推断出来的, 带有不确切性. 用这两个数字我们就可以简单快速地估算一个金矿公司的股票价格是undervalued 还是 overvalued. 为什么黄金现货价$1000/ounce, 但人家把这个金矿卖给你只卖$150/ounce呢? 这是因为你买下地之后还要花很多钱去把这个金子给挖出来, 前面已经讲了这个挖采的cost是多大, 按标准cost算总成本也至少是$150+$350~400=$500~550/ounce了, 况且新矿为了取得银行的贷款都是要hedge的, 就是预先签定好供货合同, 按固定价卖出开始生产后的前几年的所有产量, 这个固定价一般都远低于黄金的现货交易价, 一般能卖个$550~650/ounce就很不错了. 所以这个$150/ounce是有道理的. 当然, 随着金价的快速上涨, 这个基数值也会上升的.
五: 黄金板块的股票选择
其实正式的叫法该是稀有金属板块, 含: gold, silver, platinum group metals. 它们走势大体差不多, 同一个趋势. 最近银和白金的走势比金还强一些. 一般买黄金类股票的选择是:
1. Gold production company
2. Gold exploration company
3. Gold ETF
这三类各有千秋. 具体的ticker以前贴里早已提过, 这里就不重复了.现在提供一类新的选择 :
4. Gold royalty company
这类公司有点象投资公司, 只是个资本集团, 不进行生产. 但与一般投资公司不同的是它们投资购买的不是金矿公司的股票, 而是金矿公司的royalty. 这样金矿公司的所涉及到的风险都与它无关(例如金价大跌, 矿上出事故, cost大幅上升等等), 任何情况下金矿公司都要老老实实向它们交royalty, 标准的旱涝保收. 当然, 不利处就是它们也享受不到或只享受到很少一部分金矿公司由于金价大幅上升而带来的利润大幅上升.
这里提供几个ticker.
美股: ROY, RGLD
加股: FNV.TO, IRC.TO, RGL.TO
啰哩啰嗦写了一大堆, 写得累死了, 看的人肯定也会看得累死了, 唯希望对新手有所帮助.
谈黄金就一定要谈到经济, 里面挺复杂, 但最关键就是要搞明白两件事 : 黄金到底是什么? 黄金到底作什么用?
Question 1: What is gold?
Answer: Gold is money!
现在人们普遍把黄金当成commodity, 但黄金本质上是钱, 是真正的钱, 是不贬值的钱, 是真正的硬通货. 任何纸币都做不到这些, 它们本质上只是纸而已, intrinsic value = 0. 但为什么人们都把纸币当钱呢? 这是因为它们有buying power. 商品交易的本质是要等值交易, 例如两头猪就一定要换一头牛. 自从人们停止物物交易后, 纸币开始扮演中间的媒介. 纸币最大的问题是它的buying power不稳定, 时高时低. 例如: 石油几年前只要三四十美元一桶, 怎么现在要一百多美元一桶? 其实这几年石油的demand&supply一直都挺稳定的, 没有发生决定性的变化, 别看中国进口油年年增长, 全球石油产量可也是年年在大幅增长. 看OPEC最近决定不增产的理由就很清楚 : 石油供应足够满足需求, 不需要增产! 但油价可是发生了决定性的变化, 所以若油本身没变的话, 那变的就是美元的buying power了. 如果你用黄金来计量油价的话, 你就会发现油价根本就没变多少 : 几年前一ounce黄金能买约10桶油, 到现在还是能买到那么多桶油. 这就是黄金的独一无二的特点了: 不贬值. 一千年前的黄金从地下挖出来还照样用, 跟新开采出来的金矿里的黄金一个价. 纸币就够呛了, 没几个人敢把一堆纸币放个几十年的.
搞明白了第一个问题, 第二个问题就简单了. 古话讲 : 物以稀为贵. 黄金是稀有金属, 全球储量不大, 这就决定了它的高价值并且不贬值; 但它的全球储量也不很少, 足够各个国家都捏一些在手里并且流通. 太少的东西就没有什么实际的价值了, 只能挂在橱窗里给人观赏. 所以以前黄金一直是作为货币的基石, 跟美元直接挂钩, 一克黄金就一定要换多少美元 (从1935~1968, 金价固定为 US$35/ounce), 世界各个国家都是储备黄金. 但自从世界经济总量越来越大后, 黄金因为它的稀少性已经不适合作为货币的基石了, 后来就跟美元脱钩了, 美元因为美国的强大和稳定变成了各个国家的储备货币和全球贸易的结算货币. 美元过去几十年的表现倒还行, 一直算稳定. 但无论如何, 美元本质上还是纸币, 对其它国家来说还是外币, 没有哪个国家会幼稚到在国库里只放着美元的, 必然要同时放些黄金来以防万一. 事实上美国自己也是这样做的, 它的国库里的黄金储量比世界其它所有国家加起来的都要多. 所以在现代社会, 黄金的一个主要用途是作为国家的储备, 保证国家经济的稳定. 但因为历史的原因黄金的第一大用途其实是珠宝业 (jewellery). 工业用途也不少. 到2006年底为止, 地面上的所有黄金在各个领域所占比例为 :
1. 珠宝业(jewellery) : 52%, 81700吨
2. 央行及IMF等组织(official sector) : 18%, 28500吨
3. 投资业(investment)如黄金的ETF等: 16%, 25800吨
4. 工业(industrial): 12%, 18700吨
5. 其它 : 2%,
总计158000吨.
下面看看黄金的demand&supply.
市面上黄金的supply主要来自三块 :
1. 金矿生产
金矿在地球上分布得还算均匀, 各大州都不少, 但一百来年来一直是南非黄金产量雄居全球第一, 但从07年起中国超过它了 (这倒并不是因为中国的金产量增加了多少多少, 而是南非的金产量因为各种因素大幅下降而掉到中国后面去了). 现在中国排第一, 南非第二 (南非还是白金, 钯金的主要生产国, 全球80%的白金, 30+%的钯金产自那, 铀矿也多得要命, 也是一个上天垂青的land), 其它如澳大利亚, 美国, 加拿大, 南美, 俄罗斯等地产量都挺大. 近年来全球金矿生产量比较稳定, 在过去5年里每年约产2550吨黄金 (约合81.6M ounces). 一个新金矿从头到尾约需10年才能进入生产, 所以别看黄金现在涨得这么凶, 新的产量supply没法很快上来的. 2002~2006年间平均每年金矿生产黄金的数量要占到全年金supply的约61% (2239吨).
2. 回收 金(recycled gold or scrap gold)
别小看这一块, 2002~2006年间平均每年回收 金的数量要占到全年金supply的约25% (926吨).
3. 各国央行和IMF的出售
世界各国央行及一些超国界组织(例如国际货币基金组织IMF)持有总共黄金总量占地面上所有黄金总量的1/5, 约31000吨, 即992M ounces. 总体上他们自89年起一直在向市场出售他们的黄金储备. 2002~2006年间平均每年各国央行和IMF出售黄金的数量要占到全年金supply的约14% (527吨). 当然, 有很多央行在卖, 也有些央行在买. 例如中国, 日本, 印度, 俄罗斯等国央行就一直在买黄金来增加储备. 各个国家的黄金储备量相差悬殊, 但平均下来也有10%, 就是说一个国家的黄金储备要占到该国金融总储备的10%. 这个数字很重要, 看中国的情况就明白了. 中国现在的外汇储备已近1.6万亿美元, 按现在黄金$1000/ounce算, 这相当于1600M ounce gold, 也就是50000吨黄金, 按这10%的平均数来算也意味着中国起码要把这笔钱的10%转换成黄金储备, 那就是5000吨. 中国现在的黄金储备我记得没错的话应该是只有500吨左右, 相差非常巨大. 所以下面几年里中国官方政府的购买需求是支持金价的重要因素. 随着中国经济的日益上升, 中国民间的购买需求肯定也是越来越大的, 毕竟中国的通货膨胀率摆在那, 大家都觉得慌. 还是那句话 : 中国缺的东西你就等着看坐地起价了.
再看看黄金的demand. 东亚, 印度和中东就占了全世界gold demand的70%. demand排前五的国家分别为 : 印度, 意大利, 土耳其, 美国, 中国, 它们合起来共占世界 demand的53%, 印度一家就占了22%. 具体到行业去, 市面上黄金的demand主要来自三块 :
1. 珠宝业 (jewellery)
2002~2006年间平均每年珠宝业要占到该年黄金总需求的69% (2548吨). 经济上升时人们会更多的购买黄金珠宝等装饰物, 经济下降时人们会购买黄金珠宝等来保值, 总之任何时候都需要.
2. 投资业 (investment)
2002~2006年间平均每年投资业要占到该年黄金总需求的19% (703吨), 平均每年增长幅度为45%, 个人和机构投资者都在蜂拥而入, 在现有全球经济前景下这个增长速率还会加快. 从世界各国历史看过去都是一样: 只要出现uncertainty and instability, 人们就会开始买黄金了.
3. 工业 (industry)
2002~2006年间平均每年工业要占到该年黄金总需求的12% (441吨). 黄金的几个优异物理化学特性: high thermal, electrical conductivity, anti-corrosion, 决定了它有广泛的工业用途. 超过一半的工业用金是用在电子工业, 其它还有: medical applications (别忘了你口里的金牙, 哈哈), biomedical applications, chemical applications, 等等.
呵呵, 庄子说: 无用之用, 方为大用. 黄金这看似无用的东西 (不能吃, 不能穿, 也不能盖房子) 是对这句话的最好注解. 希望秋月有机会看到这篇贴子后能明白黄金到底有什么用.
二: 黄金价格未来的走势
从经济的角度讲, 黄金的主要功能是跟美元对冲和抵制通货膨胀. 美元跌必然导致黄金涨, 但哪天美元不跌了或开涨了也不意味着黄金就一定开跌, 美元黄金同时涨的事过去屡见不鲜. 再谈通货膨胀的事, 世界经济从90年代初开始的这一轮扩张热潮导致各种commodity&material价格大幅上升, 这导致商品价格大幅上涨, 再导致通货膨胀, 就意味着纸钱buying power下降, 这时黄金就是避免纸钱贬值的必然选择之一. 世界各国现在都面临通货膨胀大幅上升的问题, 这个问题短期(1~3年内)不光没有缓解的迹象, 反而面临着继续加速的趋势. 这决定了黄金的大趋势必然是向上, 直到通货膨胀缓解为止.
别看欧元现在很风光的样子, 好象要取代美元的架势, 但欧洲的经济摆在那, 还是靠捧着美国大腿混饭吃. 美国经济好它也跟着喝汤, 美国经济不好它就跟着完蛋, 更别提政治上的关系了. 所以永远轮不到它来取代美元. 事实上可以说: 美国的政治, 经济, 军事, 这三样东西要同时完蛋美国才是真正完了, 美元也就完了, 到那一天的时候其他国家和货币肯定也差不多了, 这三样只要有一样没完美国和美元就完不了. 这也是为什么黄金没有真正发疯, 彪到几千美元一盎司 (什么才算发疯? 1979年下半年到1980年一月才半年时间黄金就从330美元左右彪到843美元, 呵呵, 那才叫发疯). 至于美国会不会完蛋, 天知道, 但多半不会.
看太远谁都没把握, 就说08年吧. 美国经济前景不明郎, 会不会衰退, 若衰退会有多严重及持续多久现在谁都说不清, 只能走一步看一步, 但毫无疑问美元会继续疲软,通货膨胀继续扩大, TA上看好象在一千这个关口要调整似的, 但从基本面来看要越过这个关口是轻而易举的事, 所以那些手脚不够快, 不善于short的新手最好sidelined, 别跟着别人跟黄金过不去. 正确的作法该是在它回调时择机买入而不是空它. 黄金07年上涨了32%, 08年到目前为止15%, 才两个月. 到年底的话起码再涨个20% ~ 30% 吧, 呵呵, 所以金价我先看到$1200~1300 这一线 (提醒一声: 这也意味着油价有可能会到$120~130左右. 其实过去40年的平均值一直是一ounce黄金约等于15桶油, 只是从近几年开始降到约10桶油. 原因无非下面两者之一 : 石油涨得太多或者黄金涨得不够多, 我觉得是黄金涨得不够多的可能性更大些, 所以这就意味着黄金需要价值回归, 上升空间还很大. 所以黄金若回归到等值于15桶油时, 就算油价降到$80/bbl, 黄金也会相当于$1200/ounce). 当然这不意味着黄金会一条直线上升, 回调一定会有的. 短期一个很大的压力是美国和欧洲的央行, 还有IMF, 都打算出售一部分黄金储备, 这对市场毫无疑问会有冲击. 黄金投资者应该关注这方面的新闻, 但这个销售绝改变不了黄金的总体趋势. 还有美国肯定不希望美元跌得太快, 也就意味着它不希望黄金涨得太快, 总会搞些手段的, 但这个也改变不了黄金的总体趋势. 只要美国经济没好转, 世界通货膨胀没抑制住, 黄金的趋势就变不了. 别觉得金价$1300很疯狂, 看看commodity大师Jim Rogers的预测 : $3500/ounce, 呵呵, 觉得如何?
我在resource第一贴里把黄金的投资价值按稳当性排在第五, 是因为当时还不确定美国经济的走势, 所以当时说黄金上下的可能各是50-50, 现在几个月过去了, 各种经济数据也出了不少了, 现在我的新判断是把黄金排位上升到第二, 即 :
Moly > Gold > Uranium > Base metals > Oil
金的向上向下可能性分别为 : 90% : 10%. 其它种类的维持不变. 这也算是对我以前判断的一个update吧.
三 : 金矿等级的一点常识
金矿规模分三个等级 : 大, 中, 小.
大型金矿 : 含金量 > 800吨, 约合25.6M ounces
中型金矿 : 含金量 50 ~ 800吨, 约合1.6 ~ 25.6M ounces
小型金矿 : 含金量 10 ~ 50吨, 约合0.32 ~ 1.6M ounces
再小的就没有开采价值了. 现在已经没有尚未开挖的大型金矿了. 尚未开挖的里面有个10M ounces的就是很大的矿了. 在七八十年代的挖矿热中, 绝大部分tier 1的金矿都给挖了(tier 1的矿是指那些处于附近有infrastructure的矿, 方便开采及运出来). 剩下的都是些tier 2的矿(tier 2的矿是指那些处于偏远的地方, 没人迹, 甚至没道路, 附近没有infrastructure的矿, 开采这种矿成本极大, 经常是靠直升机进出, 可想而知).
金在自然界主要存在于两种形式 : prime product 和其它矿的byproduct (主要来自于铜矿和银矿). 金矿石的grade差别很大, 来自于byproduct的金矿石显然grade很低, 来自铜矿的一般在0.x~2g/ton, 来自银矿的一般在1.5~3g/ton, 来自于prime product的金矿石grade就高多了, 一般在5~25g/ton. 看一个新挖到的金矿脉够不够significant很重要, 不是说只要在地下挖到了金矿就一定有价值. 你看看那些金矿公司报告新挖到的矿脉时一定是要报告两个数据的 : grade and length. 第二个数据是指的矿脉的延伸长度, 太短的是没用的, 没有开采价值. 有一个简单方法来判断挖到的金矿脉到底有没有价值 : grade * length >= 300. 例如 : grade=10g/ton, length=40m, 这样grade * length=400 > 300, 这个金脉就是有开采价值的, 反之如果小于300就是没开采价值的.
四 : 金矿估价的一点常识
假如有人告诉你这块地底下探明有多少多少的金子, 现在想把这块地卖给你, 你愿出多少钱呢? 或者一个上市金矿公司公布自己有多少多少的reserve, 我们怎么估算该公司的fair value呢? 估算一个金矿的价值取决于多个因素. 首先要知道的是开挖一个金矿的cost, tier 1的矿挖采的行业标准cost是$350~400/ounce, 高于这个线, 例如到了$500/ounce, 那就是cost很高了, 公司的利润很小. 低于这个线, 例如到$150~200/ounce, 那就是cost很低了, 公司的利润很大. Grade高的矿显然开矿cost低, Grade低的矿显然开矿cost高. Cost还取决于矿的地理位置, 附近有没有电网, 道路及运输条件如何, 当地的薪金水平, 税率, 有没政府补贴等等各种大大小小的因素. 如果是tier 2的矿那代价就高了, 到六七百一盎司甚至更高都正常, 储量再大都没用, 在目前的金价下就是陪钱的买卖, 只能先搁着等哪年金价涨到开挖有利可图的时候. 小公司的Cost一般低些, 大公司的Cost一般高些.
看金矿公司的ER里经常看到它们的cost出奇的低甚至是负的, 这是因为他们把挖金矿同时挖到的byproduct (例如银或铜或其它金属) 的价值也打入了cost里, 例如挖出一吨矿石里金有多少克, byproduct有多少克, 这些byproduct所值的钱就能抵消一部分cost. 但这种byproduct高的矿石里含金量一般都比较低. 算到最后, 这个矿到底是算铜矿还是算金矿都说不清了.
第二个要知道的是一个金矿的intrinsic value. 这就是要回答开头的那两个问题. 这里也有个简单方法来计算: $150/ounce for gold reserve, $50/ounce for gold resource. 这就是说, 假如有人告诉你这块地底下探明有1M ounces的gold reserve, 那么这块地就至少值$150M. 一个上市金矿公司公布自己共有1M ounces的gold reserve 和1M ounces的gold resource, 那么该公司股票的fair value就至少是$150M+$50M=$200M. reserve 和resource差别是前者是确切探明出来的, 后者是推断出来的, 带有不确切性. 用这两个数字我们就可以简单快速地估算一个金矿公司的股票价格是undervalued 还是 overvalued. 为什么黄金现货价$1000/ounce, 但人家把这个金矿卖给你只卖$150/ounce呢? 这是因为你买下地之后还要花很多钱去把这个金子给挖出来, 前面已经讲了这个挖采的cost是多大, 按标准cost算总成本也至少是$150+$350~400=$500~550/ounce了, 况且新矿为了取得银行的贷款都是要hedge的, 就是预先签定好供货合同, 按固定价卖出开始生产后的前几年的所有产量, 这个固定价一般都远低于黄金的现货交易价, 一般能卖个$550~650/ounce就很不错了. 所以这个$150/ounce是有道理的. 当然, 随着金价的快速上涨, 这个基数值也会上升的.
五: 黄金板块的股票选择
其实正式的叫法该是稀有金属板块, 含: gold, silver, platinum group metals. 它们走势大体差不多, 同一个趋势. 最近银和白金的走势比金还强一些. 一般买黄金类股票的选择是:
1. Gold production company
2. Gold exploration company
3. Gold ETF
这三类各有千秋. 具体的ticker以前贴里早已提过, 这里就不重复了.现在提供一类新的选择 :
4. Gold royalty company
这类公司有点象投资公司, 只是个资本集团, 不进行生产. 但与一般投资公司不同的是它们投资购买的不是金矿公司的股票, 而是金矿公司的royalty. 这样金矿公司的所涉及到的风险都与它无关(例如金价大跌, 矿上出事故, cost大幅上升等等), 任何情况下金矿公司都要老老实实向它们交royalty, 标准的旱涝保收. 当然, 不利处就是它们也享受不到或只享受到很少一部分金矿公司由于金价大幅上升而带来的利润大幅上升.
这里提供几个ticker.
美股: ROY, RGLD
加股: FNV.TO, IRC.TO, RGL.TO
啰哩啰嗦写了一大堆, 写得累死了, 看的人肯定也会看得累死了, 唯希望对新手有所帮助.
Mar-06 Intraday Updates
It looks the market is really afraid of the Non-farm payroll data that will be released tomorrow. Nobody is not optimistic about this data, In the market, most people are wrong.
We have already priced in a moderately bad data tomorrow. However, by looking at the weekly jobless claim, it is possible that tomorrow the data will not be that bad.
Am I encouraging you to enter long position now? No, I am not.
I am going to provide you some strategies:
1. If you long stocks, say, Tech or commodities, I suggest you to hedge or reduce your long position.
2. If you short stocks, I suggest you keep your short position, but buy a little financial calls, such as JPM, which has several day decline and BBands lower band touch.
This is TA-wise, for short term, I believe in TA. No matter the data, if it is good, market will drop for a reason, if it is bad, market will use rate cut hope to pump. Whatever, big fish has the final word. We just need to do our own good.
Good luck!
We have already priced in a moderately bad data tomorrow. However, by looking at the weekly jobless claim, it is possible that tomorrow the data will not be that bad.
Am I encouraging you to enter long position now? No, I am not.
I am going to provide you some strategies:
1. If you long stocks, say, Tech or commodities, I suggest you to hedge or reduce your long position.
2. If you short stocks, I suggest you keep your short position, but buy a little financial calls, such as JPM, which has several day decline and BBands lower band touch.
This is TA-wise, for short term, I believe in TA. No matter the data, if it is good, market will drop for a reason, if it is bad, market will use rate cut hope to pump. Whatever, big fish has the final word. We just need to do our own good.
Good luck!
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Why am I saying it's time for strategic investment for H-shares
1. Low PE. PE should not be the only reason to invest but it should be a good reason. Once you have really cheap stocks around H-share, and you see China is booming for next 11-5 period, with many infrastructures that are going to be built, as well as many big projects, etc, you know low PE for Chinese stocks will not be a long term scheme.
2. Recent weakness. We have similar points compare to mid-2007s, while we have decent ERs ahead for major Chinese companies, I really see recent weakness is a good entry for long term investment.
3. TA-wise. We see major Chinese stocks are more or less standing above the major resistance, such as LFC, CHL, etc. The reason why market makers are not pumping them is just lacking of enough cheap chips. I am 100% sure they are accumulating now and will do in the next months, while global market is weak.
4. Many people say small factories in China now are closing their business. This is a good sign. We are now exporting electronical, machinery, communication devices, why should we still export these T-shirts? It's now for Vietnam and Thailand people to do this.
5. I am really happy to see the credit crisis. Without this crisis, I was really afraid of the over-hot Chinese stock market that may lead to a total crash, as well as the hot Chinese economy. Now we believe Chinese economy will be cooler than expected, so we begin to build rail ways, enhance infrastructure, increase local investment without worrying much about economy going crazy. At least, the market crash is postponed greatly and we won't see that in near future.
However, these assumptions are built upon peace, any war will break this. I think we don't need to worry about this too much because it is somehow out of our control and expectation.
2. Recent weakness. We have similar points compare to mid-2007s, while we have decent ERs ahead for major Chinese companies, I really see recent weakness is a good entry for long term investment.
3. TA-wise. We see major Chinese stocks are more or less standing above the major resistance, such as LFC, CHL, etc. The reason why market makers are not pumping them is just lacking of enough cheap chips. I am 100% sure they are accumulating now and will do in the next months, while global market is weak.
4. Many people say small factories in China now are closing their business. This is a good sign. We are now exporting electronical, machinery, communication devices, why should we still export these T-shirts? It's now for Vietnam and Thailand people to do this.
5. I am really happy to see the credit crisis. Without this crisis, I was really afraid of the over-hot Chinese stock market that may lead to a total crash, as well as the hot Chinese economy. Now we believe Chinese economy will be cooler than expected, so we begin to build rail ways, enhance infrastructure, increase local investment without worrying much about economy going crazy. At least, the market crash is postponed greatly and we won't see that in near future.
However, these assumptions are built upon peace, any war will break this. I think we don't need to worry about this too much because it is somehow out of our control and expectation.
Mar-05 Daily Strategy
We now see some strength of the market, then we can think about how to benefit from it. As I suggested, if you fished some Tech and Home Builders during AH yesterday, then now they are in good shape. We need to consider some other actions of today. I would suggest to watch several stocks for another swing.
[CEO] this baby has had correction and I think it's time for her to show some strength as OIL rises.
Chinese telecom stocks may have another swing up, such as CN CHU CHA, today is their first day up and I expect 2-3 another upward swing.
These H-share ADRs can be loaded if and only if the market is set to green today with more than 60 points gain of DOW. You can buy them around 1-2 PM when the market is steady without much weakness.
For other stocks, I suggest you to take a look at Brazil stocks on my pick list.
If you focus on some long-term investments, I have already recommended a Vietnam holding before: PINK:VTOPF, maybe you can have a look.
[CEO] this baby has had correction and I think it's time for her to show some strength as OIL rises.
Chinese telecom stocks may have another swing up, such as CN CHU CHA, today is their first day up and I expect 2-3 another upward swing.
These H-share ADRs can be loaded if and only if the market is set to green today with more than 60 points gain of DOW. You can buy them around 1-2 PM when the market is steady without much weakness.
For other stocks, I suggest you to take a look at Brazil stocks on my pick list.
If you focus on some long-term investments, I have already recommended a Vietnam holding before: PINK:VTOPF, maybe you can have a look.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Mar-04 Market Summary
We have an incredible turn around today which we have not seen for a while. Still, we hold 12150 today by close, we lost 0.4% for the first two days of this week. As I said for 2 weeks, if we have a while candle stick for this week, then the middle term will be bullish. This is of course still valid.
For next days, we have two days with long shadow at the bottom, which signals a bullish sentiment for next days. Let's wait and see.
Strategies:
1. Fishing Tech, Home Builder during AH if possible.
2. Metal stocks may be cooled down a bit, but this is a correction, I think, watch tight.
Good luck!
For next days, we have two days with long shadow at the bottom, which signals a bullish sentiment for next days. Let's wait and see.
Strategies:
1. Fishing Tech, Home Builder during AH if possible.
2. Metal stocks may be cooled down a bit, but this is a correction, I think, watch tight.
Good luck!
Mar-04 Daily Market Preview
We will have a very tough week ahead, where Friday's job data is a central cocern. Highlights of today:
* Band of Canada may cut rates. The dollar may have less pressure.
* DOW 12150 held yesterday, but this is still critical for today's direction. Most long positions should be reduced and cleared accordingly.
* For minor long positions, still, gold is an option, base metal, agriculture are secondary options. My favorite gold stocks like AUY and ABX hit all time high yesterday. But please be careful, I expect 1050-1100 will be next target for big correction.
* For short positions, if you followed my suggestion to use bond insurers like fre fnm as a hedging position against longs, you should be profitable now. Still, bond insurers are first choice for shorts and puts.
To me, the best strategy here is having more cash and send money back to China to play around A shares. Yesterday, I just took my February profit around 25% (you should not be surprised by looking at my picks) and will send the money back to China, especially in this moment EUR hits all time high agaist USD.
* Band of Canada may cut rates. The dollar may have less pressure.
* DOW 12150 held yesterday, but this is still critical for today's direction. Most long positions should be reduced and cleared accordingly.
* For minor long positions, still, gold is an option, base metal, agriculture are secondary options. My favorite gold stocks like AUY and ABX hit all time high yesterday. But please be careful, I expect 1050-1100 will be next target for big correction.
* For short positions, if you followed my suggestion to use bond insurers like fre fnm as a hedging position against longs, you should be profitable now. Still, bond insurers are first choice for shorts and puts.
To me, the best strategy here is having more cash and send money back to China to play around A shares. Yesterday, I just took my February profit around 25% (you should not be surprised by looking at my picks) and will send the money back to China, especially in this moment EUR hits all time high agaist USD.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Mar-3 Daily Preview
The new week begins with uncertainty around. We have the most important job data on this Friday, which will somehow decide the short term direction of the market.
Regarding today, we see the modest loss at the beginning as BA weights on DOW. However, commodity stocks are continue to outperform. Gold will try 1000 this week or next. Fertilizers are going to test new high if the market goes steady.
With last Friday's sharp decline, I talked about strategies of this week. I repeat, any drop below 12150 is a sell signal. It's not a good time to build short term or mid term long position, while at this stage, extra long term holding can be built with 1-2 times average down prepared. If you are not going to average down, please stay aside.
The market now has 4 declining month in row, therefore I wonder in worse case, we will have a positive month in May. In best case, we will have a positive March. A positive March could be established if we have a positive week now. This is all TA-wise. On FA, I tend to believe the Spring comes around April, when the rate cut really show something.
Good luck for this week!
Regarding today, we see the modest loss at the beginning as BA weights on DOW. However, commodity stocks are continue to outperform. Gold will try 1000 this week or next. Fertilizers are going to test new high if the market goes steady.
With last Friday's sharp decline, I talked about strategies of this week. I repeat, any drop below 12150 is a sell signal. It's not a good time to build short term or mid term long position, while at this stage, extra long term holding can be built with 1-2 times average down prepared. If you are not going to average down, please stay aside.
The market now has 4 declining month in row, therefore I wonder in worse case, we will have a positive month in May. In best case, we will have a positive March. A positive March could be established if we have a positive week now. This is all TA-wise. On FA, I tend to believe the Spring comes around April, when the rate cut really show something.
Good luck for this week!
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Mar-01 Market Summary and Preview
As I said during last weekly summary and preview, I was not optimistic on the market at all, and I also predicted a black candle stick on the weekly chart above 12250 is possible and acceptable. Then we still have chance on the next week.
However, I am also not very optimistic on next week as well. A very obvious sign will be breaking under 12150, which is likely to happen on Monday due to the BA news, in this case, I think any long position will be dangerous. If a large sell-off occurs, it is likely to see a 1500 decline on DOW to test 10700 level on 2006 lows.
If you still have some long positions, I would strongly recommend you to reduce/clear or take some hedge position to protect your investment in the case of another decline under 12150 early next week. There is no safe place in this market. Including DBA and gold might decline as well, although they will come back.
If you have set your mind and hold blue chips tight for longer than 1 year, I think it's OK for you to ignore the current market, because normal people never dare to bottom fish and catch low price stocks and they often buy back when the price goes higher than their selling price.
In a nutshell, a bullish sign will be DOW holds 12150 for Monday and Tuesday, otherwise, it will be very bearish.
However, I am also not very optimistic on next week as well. A very obvious sign will be breaking under 12150, which is likely to happen on Monday due to the BA news, in this case, I think any long position will be dangerous. If a large sell-off occurs, it is likely to see a 1500 decline on DOW to test 10700 level on 2006 lows.
If you still have some long positions, I would strongly recommend you to reduce/clear or take some hedge position to protect your investment in the case of another decline under 12150 early next week. There is no safe place in this market. Including DBA and gold might decline as well, although they will come back.
If you have set your mind and hold blue chips tight for longer than 1 year, I think it's OK for you to ignore the current market, because normal people never dare to bottom fish and catch low price stocks and they often buy back when the price goes higher than their selling price.
In a nutshell, a bullish sign will be DOW holds 12150 for Monday and Tuesday, otherwise, it will be very bearish.
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