Jun-27 Market Comments

Some people are wrong this time, including me. I thought 12000 could be the bottom and the market should go up. Given the rate steady decision, I think the market should also be able to recover a bit. But I was wrong on that.

However, I was correct on buying zone for stocks like RIO (33-34) and AAPL (155-165), I think it is time to load good stocks again. Split your position into three steps, buy at any point below current level, and 11000, and 10700, if DOW reaches that point, which is not likely.

For risky-free players, I suggest to buy maybe three to five weeks later, you need to both have commodity, tech, airline, and financial stocks this time for your long term positions. Including ACH and ZNH, they may keep silent for years but if you catch one wave, then it's enough.

For A shares and Hong Kong market, I recommend Chinese banks, ICBC is now my recommendation both on A and H. Steel makers are good ones to have as well. Finally, I think Singapore Airline is good to have as well. I plan to add it to my retirement account weeks later.

Jun-20 Comments on recent market

I am on the bullish side, as both TA and FA do not show a crash is coming around. For the evidence that agricultural stocks are due for correction, the market should be bullish in the next weeks. I would like to draw your attention with sectors and stocks below:

• Tech. Hot stocks such as AAPL, RIMM, ATVI are good ones to catch the tech wave. Buy on dips. MSFT, ADBE, CSCO, AMD are good ones for longer term investment.
• Please pay attention small-cap in A share stocks starting with 002, screen them and pick ones with volume and price increase, such as 002156. Once the market ends the downtrend, these stocks may rise.
• Emerging markets, such as Russian and Brazil are still good to have as they are rich in resouce and good for long term.

To reply stocks like LPL, if you think this stock is in good fundamental, feel free to average down now or later. Stock market is always a cyclic business, what you need to do is to diversify your portfolio with 3-5 different sectors and sell on the sudden rise of any of them.

By the way, I decided to go to Singapore, so in the future, I think I can track the morning market and give summary during the night.

Jun-16 Market updates

Given the market sentiment and recent environment. The market should turn to bullish soon.

It is possible to touch 12000 but I guess there won't be new lows. Today I would like to talk more on AAPL and its iPhone 3G.

I believe major stocks such as AAPL will still lead the sector, as I am optimistic on its 3G phone. Like iPod, the first release was not very impressive as mostly Mac fans were buying. However, with release of 3G iPhone, I think many actual users will buy it, including many young business man born after 70s. It provides GPS with Google map, therefore I think it is more powerful and informative than other GPS providers. Other functionalities of this mobile device are also more fancy and user-friendly compare its rivals. One of the most important thing: it is cheaper than previous iPhone. 200 USD will bring this mobile phone to a normal consumer electronics rather than a fancy luxury goods.

I think AAPL is a buy in the area of 155-165 with one year scope.

Jun-14 Current Opportunities

There are many opportunities out there so I think I need to write something, although I am still not fully settled yet.

 

First, if everyone sees there is a crisis in Vietnam, I see a great chance for long term investment entries. Just search Vietnam funds, than you will find many. Just look back the financial crisis during 90s in Asia and how the stock goes in the next couple of years. People always are fearful when crisis comes, while you can fine a lot of stocks that are ridiculously cheap.

 

Second, metal mining is next wave of inflation after crude oil. I personally think the oil bubble is going to explode quite soon. I strongly doubt if crude oil can go beyond 150. Just check airline stocks, do you really believe so many big airliners are going to bankrupt? I think it is good time to buy metal stocks, such as AA FCX RIO CLF and others.

 

Russian stocks are still good buy here.

 

The overall market in a second round of testing bottom, let's see if 12000 holds. If so, we should never see new lows. Another 1-2 days while candlestick can prove that.

Jun-8 Crisis is always good for bargain hunters

Sorry for leaving a week again, as I did not have regular connection in the past week. Given the sharp loss on Friday, the market gives me an impression for another round of sell-off, which indicates my prediction on recent bullish was completely wrong. I am not surprised as it can easily be a mistake once I cannot track the market from time to time. I think now I should really focus on possible opportunities in recent market and try to answer the questions on mailing list in the past week.

First, if there is big sell-off again then it is good time to buy nice stocks again, just like the previous sell-off. We have already seen the financial crisis in Vietnam and I see long-term big opportunity right there. Please remember the Southeast Asian financial crisis in 90s, when the blue chips are head cutted, they recovered in next several years. I think it is now the time to closely inspect Vietnam stock market and wait for a stablization in the low positions and buy some funds. I expect the 3rd quarter this year will be a good entry time.

Do not short financial stocks, this downturn is likely to be the last for this sector, in my opinion. Finally, if you want me to mentioned three sectors to long during sell-off, that would be Russian, Russian and Russian.