Sunday, February 24, 2008

Feb-24 New Picks Announcement [GTI][CGT]

As I promised, I'll announce several picks in Tech sector, hereby I have two picks here:

[CGT]
This company provides avaition simulation devices, which I think is not affected by credit crisis at all as they have very strong cash flow. As this company has already released a good ER, so what we need to do is to watch it and find a good price to get in. The entry price of this stock is 11.5-12.1 with stop loss 11 and 12-month target 18.

[GTI]
Demand of high quality graphite is very high. China is exporting low quality graphite very much while there is still a huge gap between the production of high quality graphite and the annual demand. GTI has a very good position in providing graphite electrode. On FA side, we find in past 3 months, most insiders are buying this stock, and company announced a buyback of 3 million shares outstanding. However, this stock has very low PE and forward PE due to its high volatility, therefore it is NOT safe at all compare to Chinese stocks, e.g., it has been pull back around 40% from its recent high then bounced back somehow. This stock is going to announce ER on 28th Feb, any actions on betting ER is not encounraged and stupid to me, whereas it does not change my recomendation on this stock as my pick. My recommended action on this stock will be:

1. Buy a small position around 14.5-15 with stop loss 14 before 28th Feb. Cut your loss if ER misses, which is unlikely to my point of view. Or average up if it beats.
2. Wait after ER, then play post ER, if it beats, buy during extended hour trading.

I tend to play option 2 as I can read ER quickly and act accordingly. But anyway I think the FA of this company is OK and I give it 12-month target price 25.

Please note, my signal of reducing/clearing long postiions in any future updates will also apply to these two stocks.

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