Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Feb-19 Market Summary

I was afraid of a sell-off that leads to over 1% decline of DOW, which breaks the whole big picture.

As you can see, now, we still in the game, in particular, after HPQ beats and raises guidance.

Still, tomorrow's CPI data is somehow tricky, but to my opinion, it does not change the direction of market. As following reasons:

1. We see stabilization of the home builder sector, which is basically the root problem of this "bear market". We saw the data released today was better than expected, aligning to other data released this month, I don't see a clear picture regarding whether we are in big trouble now. So, if possible for you, you can try to fish some home builder during AH in reasonable price to test water. If you have some, just hold it. You can use 1% below the lows in previous week as stop loss for the stocks in this sector.

2. The market first takes home builder, then finance. So if you have picked up some financial stocks already, just use 1% below previous Jan. low as stop loss, which is not much loss, I think.

3. HPQ may reverses the recent weakness of tech sector, let's see how it is going. In tech, I prefer MSFT, NOK as safe players. In general, I like low PE software sector than others - I'll try to discover some good one during this weekend. I don't like high PE baby which is risky, although, may profit in short term.

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