Today we have a really ugly start and my messenger is down again. What I can see now that today has a big distribution start and now it finds an temp bottom. There are several remarks:
1. We have support around previous trend line here around 12350 which is very critical, any new low today below 12300 is a very bearish signal that tells you, sell now.
2. The chance that we have a full recovery is very low. If DOW close above 12450, then it is a good sign, so you can try to buy some on this dip with stop loss around 12330.
3. As I said we can still tolerate that we have a black stick for this week and it will be still bullish if next week is white. But pleas bear in mind, the bottom line is 12300.
It's always better to go away with small/no profits than staying under water.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Feb-28 Daily comments with Gold analysis
I have seen bad economic data today, and there will be another batch of data coming tomorrow, as well as AIG report, which may not be positive.
If you have some profits in past weeks, and now it's time to take some off the table. If you are still deep underwater, I don't think short term changes make much sense on you.
As I said before, if we close this week around 12450, we still have chance to see 13000, otherwise, it will be quite gloomy again.
Some people asked me about gold, I would say, gold is a safe-haven buying now. Think about early 1990s, gold is about 130 RMB per gram, now it's about 220, which is far far below inflation. During 1990s, 130 RMB is a monthly salary of an government employee in China, but now 220 is one day salary.
I predicted gold to reach at least 1050 before next correction, now there is still no panic buying, when everyone realize gold is a safe place to put money, gold will reach 1250, or even higher.
If you believe US economy is bad, and you want some hedging position in your portfolio, think about gold stocks. However, I do not recommend to put most of your account to gold as you probably will be staying underwater for a couple of years because gold stocks sometimes do not go up with future bull market.
If you have some profits in past weeks, and now it's time to take some off the table. If you are still deep underwater, I don't think short term changes make much sense on you.
As I said before, if we close this week around 12450, we still have chance to see 13000, otherwise, it will be quite gloomy again.
Some people asked me about gold, I would say, gold is a safe-haven buying now. Think about early 1990s, gold is about 130 RMB per gram, now it's about 220, which is far far below inflation. During 1990s, 130 RMB is a monthly salary of an government employee in China, but now 220 is one day salary.
I predicted gold to reach at least 1050 before next correction, now there is still no panic buying, when everyone realize gold is a safe place to put money, gold will reach 1250, or even higher.
If you believe US economy is bad, and you want some hedging position in your portfolio, think about gold stocks. However, I do not recommend to put most of your account to gold as you probably will be staying underwater for a couple of years because gold stocks sometimes do not go up with future bull market.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Tech rebound, semiconductor bottom out
I have been watching semi for a while, it looks like they are bottom out.
For tech leaders such as aapl goog, I doubt for near-term further drops. Many indicators just can not be more bearish.
But please bear in mind, near term tech rally may indicator the end of a sector rotation, which means, manybe the end of this overall rebound.
However, if we are going test 200MA, then we still have another round of sector rotation.
For tech leaders such as aapl goog, I doubt for near-term further drops. Many indicators just can not be more bearish.
But please bear in mind, near term tech rally may indicator the end of a sector rotation, which means, manybe the end of this overall rebound.
However, if we are going test 200MA, then we still have another round of sector rotation.
Feb-27 Intraday update
Some one asked me whether we can get in here around 12700, I say, you need to buy on dips. It's very likely we have a correction and shake today and tomorrow, the hit 13000. But, do you think 5-8% gain of a certain stock, maybe even less, is a very good profit for you? Also, you have to take it before getting underwater.
If you really want some, I suggest you take a look at the financial/tech sector, while maybe you can get 10% before next drop.
Currently, I don't see any sign of recovery of economy, maybe swing trade is better for good traders, but not frogs.
Or you can still buy blue chip H-share ADR stocks for 6-12 month holding, but, just be prepared to average down 1-2 times on any dip > 20%, which is unlikely to me...
For today, I predicted a drop is possible and I hoped it wouldn't be too big. If so, I guess we are heading to 13000 to test MA 200, which is a typical action for bear market rebound.
If you really want some, I suggest you take a look at the financial/tech sector, while maybe you can get 10% before next drop.
Currently, I don't see any sign of recovery of economy, maybe swing trade is better for good traders, but not frogs.
Or you can still buy blue chip H-share ADR stocks for 6-12 month holding, but, just be prepared to average down 1-2 times on any dip > 20%, which is unlikely to me...
For today, I predicted a drop is possible and I hoped it wouldn't be too big. If so, I guess we are heading to 13000 to test MA 200, which is a typical action for bear market rebound.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Feb-26 Daily Summary
We had a nice ~600 points rally in three days so now I think we are looking forward a pull back very soon. There are several possibilities.
1. Tomorrow's data and Ben's speak are generally positive or neutral, then we will probably have another early day run and pull back during late session. Finance is somehow out of energy, and we expect FNM to report a terrible quarter on Thursday morning. But, any positive sign of FNM ER will boost financial shares and DOW for sure.
2. Tomorrow's data and Ben's talk are generally bad, we see lower opening, then a rally attempt, which is likely to fail at the end.
However, in general, if we see a less then 100 points decline tomorrow, it's still not bad. I still think it will be long's victory if we can hold 12450 for this weekend. So this means, if DOW closes below 12450 this week, we need to reduce our long positions.
I am not recommend a lot of long positions now, I would rather prefer to hedge at this point. Bad economy may sink dollar then commodity and gold will rise. Strategy of today's morning is still valid - long gold until gold hits $1050 per oz.
If you ask me for a bias, I would like to bet that there will be NO big drop in following three days IF tomorrow DOW closes above 12750.
1. Tomorrow's data and Ben's speak are generally positive or neutral, then we will probably have another early day run and pull back during late session. Finance is somehow out of energy, and we expect FNM to report a terrible quarter on Thursday morning. But, any positive sign of FNM ER will boost financial shares and DOW for sure.
2. Tomorrow's data and Ben's talk are generally bad, we see lower opening, then a rally attempt, which is likely to fail at the end.
However, in general, if we see a less then 100 points decline tomorrow, it's still not bad. I still think it will be long's victory if we can hold 12450 for this weekend. So this means, if DOW closes below 12450 this week, we need to reduce our long positions.
I am not recommend a lot of long positions now, I would rather prefer to hedge at this point. Bad economy may sink dollar then commodity and gold will rise. Strategy of today's morning is still valid - long gold until gold hits $1050 per oz.
If you ask me for a bias, I would like to bet that there will be NO big drop in following three days IF tomorrow DOW closes above 12750.
Feb-26 Market updates
As you can see, if market holds 12200 level, we can just hold tight and wait for the wave coming.
Someone says the data today were bad, I would say we saw a mixed data here, so they should offset with each other.
While we have IBM buyback plan, as well as raising guidance, and financial stocks still can benefit from yesterday's news, I think we don't have much to worry about today.
We should pay more attention on durable good order tomorrow, which may have more impact on the market. If we have three white candle stick, tomorrow will likely to have a pull back if the data is not better than expected.
For trading opportunities, I have mentioned several times about SIMG on my MSN group, it is still a buy on any dip in next days (there was a dip during past week already). I would also like to draw your attention on Q as I think both SIMG and Q have bottomed out. Today's dip of Q is an opportunity here (and probably tomorrow as well), Q was also a long pick of PSP, but I am not sure if he wanted it for short or mid-term.
Just hold you half long position for now.
Imaging if data are bad tomorrow, dollar will sink, and gold will surge, then the gold stocks will surge. If we have good data, the market will go up, while the gold stocks still somehow follow the market without dropping too much. I have my target of gold price around $1050-1100, so small gold long position for hedging might be considered. Besides my picks AUY and ABX, GG is also good.
Please note, we don't need to predict the market, as we just need to do the right thing on the market movements.
P.S. My Messenger is down, so I just post here.
Someone says the data today were bad, I would say we saw a mixed data here, so they should offset with each other.
While we have IBM buyback plan, as well as raising guidance, and financial stocks still can benefit from yesterday's news, I think we don't have much to worry about today.
We should pay more attention on durable good order tomorrow, which may have more impact on the market. If we have three white candle stick, tomorrow will likely to have a pull back if the data is not better than expected.
For trading opportunities, I have mentioned several times about SIMG on my MSN group, it is still a buy on any dip in next days (there was a dip during past week already). I would also like to draw your attention on Q as I think both SIMG and Q have bottomed out. Today's dip of Q is an opportunity here (and probably tomorrow as well), Q was also a long pick of PSP, but I am not sure if he wanted it for short or mid-term.
Just hold you half long position for now.
Imaging if data are bad tomorrow, dollar will sink, and gold will surge, then the gold stocks will surge. If we have good data, the market will go up, while the gold stocks still somehow follow the market without dropping too much. I have my target of gold price around $1050-1100, so small gold long position for hedging might be considered. Besides my picks AUY and ABX, GG is also good.
Please note, we don't need to predict the market, as we just need to do the right thing on the market movements.
P.S. My Messenger is down, so I just post here.
Monday, February 25, 2008
FEB-25 Tech's future
There is two considerata for Tech sector:
1. If tomorrow's data is not as bad as expected.
2. GOOG forms a double bottom
We will see Tech rebound soon.
1. If tomorrow's data is not as bad as expected.
2. GOOG forms a double bottom
We will see Tech rebound soon.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Feb-24 New Picks Announcement [GTI][CGT]
As I promised, I'll announce several picks in Tech sector, hereby I have two picks here:
[CGT]
This company provides avaition simulation devices, which I think is not affected by credit crisis at all as they have very strong cash flow. As this company has already released a good ER, so what we need to do is to watch it and find a good price to get in. The entry price of this stock is 11.5-12.1 with stop loss 11 and 12-month target 18.
[GTI]
Demand of high quality graphite is very high. China is exporting low quality graphite very much while there is still a huge gap between the production of high quality graphite and the annual demand. GTI has a very good position in providing graphite electrode. On FA side, we find in past 3 months, most insiders are buying this stock, and company announced a buyback of 3 million shares outstanding. However, this stock has very low PE and forward PE due to its high volatility, therefore it is NOT safe at all compare to Chinese stocks, e.g., it has been pull back around 40% from its recent high then bounced back somehow. This stock is going to announce ER on 28th Feb, any actions on betting ER is not encounraged and stupid to me, whereas it does not change my recomendation on this stock as my pick. My recommended action on this stock will be:
1. Buy a small position around 14.5-15 with stop loss 14 before 28th Feb. Cut your loss if ER misses, which is unlikely to my point of view. Or average up if it beats.
2. Wait after ER, then play post ER, if it beats, buy during extended hour trading.
I tend to play option 2 as I can read ER quickly and act accordingly. But anyway I think the FA of this company is OK and I give it 12-month target price 25.
Please note, my signal of reducing/clearing long postiions in any future updates will also apply to these two stocks.
[CGT]
This company provides avaition simulation devices, which I think is not affected by credit crisis at all as they have very strong cash flow. As this company has already released a good ER, so what we need to do is to watch it and find a good price to get in. The entry price of this stock is 11.5-12.1 with stop loss 11 and 12-month target 18.
[GTI]
Demand of high quality graphite is very high. China is exporting low quality graphite very much while there is still a huge gap between the production of high quality graphite and the annual demand. GTI has a very good position in providing graphite electrode. On FA side, we find in past 3 months, most insiders are buying this stock, and company announced a buyback of 3 million shares outstanding. However, this stock has very low PE and forward PE due to its high volatility, therefore it is NOT safe at all compare to Chinese stocks, e.g., it has been pull back around 40% from its recent high then bounced back somehow. This stock is going to announce ER on 28th Feb, any actions on betting ER is not encounraged and stupid to me, whereas it does not change my recomendation on this stock as my pick. My recommended action on this stock will be:
1. Buy a small position around 14.5-15 with stop loss 14 before 28th Feb. Cut your loss if ER misses, which is unlikely to my point of view. Or average up if it beats.
2. Wait after ER, then play post ER, if it beats, buy during extended hour trading.
I tend to play option 2 as I can read ER quickly and act accordingly. But anyway I think the FA of this company is OK and I give it 12-month target price 25.
Please note, my signal of reducing/clearing long postiions in any future updates will also apply to these two stocks.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Feb-23 Weekly Market Preview
事实上，周五的消息出来的时间很蹊跷。正好是空头要放量打压的时候
，这个时候一般是场外空头见到支撑位被破也是纷纷涌入，多头开始纷纷逃命，于是好戏上演了。
这个消息明显是该在周一周二放的，周五放出来很显然就是为了救市了，那么我们看看这个消息的来源，发现一般就是主要的银行们了，也就是大机构，大投行，哎？我们想到了什么，是不是大鳄们不想让市场跌下去呢？在群上，我早上聊起了这样一个问题，到底是什么让消费减少了？我们发现股市的低迷，可能是个不小的原因。为什么呢，大家问问自己，当看到自己的退休账户纷纷缩水的时候，心理暗示上是不是消费要谨慎一点点呢（有谁退休账户做空的举手）？炒股输钱，是不是花一些不该花的钱的时候要三思一下呢？我想大多人都会这么想吧。政府不是傻瓜，他们也知道这点。
有人马上反对：在美国，政府对于股市的影响不存在，政府不可能可以控制股市……嗯，嗯，不需要控制，能够影响就行了，呵呵。美国人真的是着急了，老巴都出来拣便宜货了，有救市信息恨不得早几天告诉你。另外呢，今天leading indicator上调了一个百分点，呵呵，这样和预期相同了。舆论导向也开始转头了……
那么下周是否就是牛市了呢？看这么几点：
1. 大机构做多决心是否强大，是否能忽略一切经济数据做多。
2. 如果大机构做多决心不大，那么经济数据是不是不差。
3. 如果经济数据差，机构比较犹豫，那么最多能跌多少。
对于1，2两点，没啥可以多说的，一般市场在这个消息刺激之下，还能继续上，finance home builder领头，tech之后跟上，不过最占便宜还是我喜欢的矿业，跟着涨，呵呵。美国经济恢复了话，金属不是需求更大了？可是如果是第三点呢？我觉得周线上任何200点以内的DOW跌幅都是可以接受的，无论是下周还是下下周，只要开始连续的1-2周的solid gain，就可以有个比较好的中期多头形态。反之，大家该止损就止损，该hedge就hedge吧。止损位12100。
这个消息明显是该在周一周二放的，周五放出来很显然就是为了救市了，那么我们看看这个消息的来源，发现一般就是主要的银行们了，也就是大机构，大投行，哎？我们想到了什么，是不是大鳄们不想让市场跌下去呢？在群上，我早上聊起了这样一个问题，到底是什么让消费减少了？我们发现股市的低迷，可能是个不小的原因。为什么呢，大家问问自己，当看到自己的退休账户纷纷缩水的时候，心理暗示上是不是消费要谨慎一点点呢（有谁退休账户做空的举手）？炒股输钱，是不是花一些不该花的钱的时候要三思一下呢？我想大多人都会这么想吧。政府不是傻瓜，他们也知道这点。
有人马上反对：在美国，政府对于股市的影响不存在，政府不可能可以控制股市……嗯，嗯，不需要控制，能够影响就行了，呵呵。美国人真的是着急了，老巴都出来拣便宜货了，有救市信息恨不得早几天告诉你。另外呢，今天leading indicator上调了一个百分点，呵呵，这样和预期相同了。舆论导向也开始转头了……
那么下周是否就是牛市了呢？看这么几点：
1. 大机构做多决心是否强大，是否能忽略一切经济数据做多。
2. 如果大机构做多决心不大，那么经济数据是不是不差。
3. 如果经济数据差，机构比较犹豫，那么最多能跌多少。
对于1，2两点，没啥可以多说的，一般市场在这个消息刺激之下，还能继续上，finance home builder领头，tech之后跟上，不过最占便宜还是我喜欢的矿业，跟着涨，呵呵。美国经济恢复了话，金属不是需求更大了？可是如果是第三点呢？我觉得周线上任何200点以内的DOW跌幅都是可以接受的，无论是下周还是下下周，只要开始连续的1-2周的solid gain，就可以有个比较好的中期多头形态。反之，大家该止损就止损，该hedge就hedge吧。止损位12100。
Friday, February 22, 2008
Feb-22 Daily Comments
As I said, Miss. Market is not predictable, what you can do is to set your rule and execute it.
For most financial stocks, maybe except C, there is no new low compare to yesterday, and I think my stop loss signal is not valid any more.
Please pay attention to JPM, yesterday before closing, the volume of JPM suddenly increase significantly without any news out, this is very unusual. Also, the DOW didn't change with JPM.
Then, let's check the volume/price change of JPM today, it began to rise when the market went sideways after 2 p.m.and volumne increase gradually, e.g., C is little changed.
The conclusion is I believe some people know this ABK news before, I am pretty sure about that. :)
Please just think about: What will you do if you own financial stocks for the past two weeks and see they decline gradually...?
Next week is very data heavy, I suggest 50% long position is really the upper bound, and please watch my signals tightly.
If you are still empty, I suggest you take a look at and consider to fish some CHL and LFC during AH trading.
For most financial stocks, maybe except C, there is no new low compare to yesterday, and I think my stop loss signal is not valid any more.
Please pay attention to JPM, yesterday before closing, the volume of JPM suddenly increase significantly without any news out, this is very unusual. Also, the DOW didn't change with JPM.
Then, let's check the volume/price change of JPM today, it began to rise when the market went sideways after 2 p.m.and volumne increase gradually, e.g., C is little changed.
The conclusion is I believe some people know this ABK news before, I am pretty sure about that. :)
Please just think about: What will you do if you own financial stocks for the past two weeks and see they decline gradually...?
Next week is very data heavy, I suggest 50% long position is really the upper bound, and please watch my signals tightly.
If you are still empty, I suggest you take a look at and consider to fish some CHL and LFC during AH trading.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
真相也许还会拖到下周
现在宽度还有12250-12500之间250点的区域，这样的宽度足够几天震荡了。明天没啥数据，比较怀疑是否会很大波动。
为什么说可能下周呢，我看了下日历，下周数据：
周一：
15:00 United States Existing Home Sales
15:00 United States Existing Home Sales (MoM)
这个数据未必能产生决定性的影响。
周二：
13:30 United States Producer Price Index (MoM)
13:30 United States Producer Price Index (YoY)
13:30 United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)
13:30 United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)
15:00 United States Consumer Confidence
15:00 United States Housing Price Index
15:00 United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
一大堆重要数据，这时候出大方向的可能性很大。如果到时候还是在这个12350为中心运动，那么我相信：
13:30 United States Durable Goods Orders
13:30 United States Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation
15:00 United States New Home Sales
15:00 United States New Home Sales (MoM)
15:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks
呵呵，重量级的数据在这里，这时候总要有个分晓了。也就4天，大家耐心一下，呵呵。
为什么说可能下周呢，我看了下日历，下周数据：
周一：
15:00 United States Existing Home Sales
15:00 United States Existing Home Sales (MoM)
这个数据未必能产生决定性的影响。
周二：
13:30 United States Producer Price Index (MoM)
13:30 United States Producer Price Index (YoY)
13:30 United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)
13:30 United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)
15:00 United States Consumer Confidence
15:00 United States Housing Price Index
15:00 United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
一大堆重要数据，这时候出大方向的可能性很大。如果到时候还是在这个12350为中心运动，那么我相信：
13:30 United States Durable Goods Orders
13:30 United States Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation
15:00 United States New Home Sales
15:00 United States New Home Sales (MoM)
15:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks
呵呵，重量级的数据在这里，这时候总要有个分晓了。也就4天，大家耐心一下，呵呵。
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Feb-20 Daily Summary
If you have bought, then I think just hold.
Let's look at the daily chart for another triangle, we can see now we are exactly on the edge of upper resistance, where longs will spend a lot of they want to break through it. However, if tomorrow the future is green, then we can easily break this level, and what longs need to do is to hold this line against the pull back from shorts. Also, the gap will be filled somehow.
However, we also have some data tomorrow, although I think it's trivial to the market direction.
In all, please just hold tight before I give a sell/reduce signal for long.
Good luck! - iamwym
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Feb-19 Market Summary
I was afraid of a sell-off that leads to over 1% decline of DOW, which breaks the whole big picture.
As you can see, now, we still in the game, in particular, after HPQ beats and raises guidance.
Still, tomorrow's CPI data is somehow tricky, but to my opinion, it does not change the direction of market. As following reasons:
1. We see stabilization of the home builder sector, which is basically the root problem of this "bear market". We saw the data released today was better than expected, aligning to other data released this month, I don't see a clear picture regarding whether we are in big trouble now. So, if possible for you, you can try to fish some home builder during AH in reasonable price to test water. If you have some, just hold it. You can use 1% below the lows in previous week as stop loss for the stocks in this sector.
2. The market first takes home builder, then finance. So if you have picked up some financial stocks already, just use 1% below previous Jan. low as stop loss, which is not much loss, I think.
3. HPQ may reverses the recent weakness of tech sector, let's see how it is going. In tech, I prefer MSFT, NOK as safe players. In general, I like low PE software sector than others - I'll try to discover some good one during this weekend. I don't like high PE baby which is risky, although, may profit in short term.
As you can see, now, we still in the game, in particular, after HPQ beats and raises guidance.
Still, tomorrow's CPI data is somehow tricky, but to my opinion, it does not change the direction of market. As following reasons:
1. We see stabilization of the home builder sector, which is basically the root problem of this "bear market". We saw the data released today was better than expected, aligning to other data released this month, I don't see a clear picture regarding whether we are in big trouble now. So, if possible for you, you can try to fish some home builder during AH in reasonable price to test water. If you have some, just hold it. You can use 1% below the lows in previous week as stop loss for the stocks in this sector.
2. The market first takes home builder, then finance. So if you have picked up some financial stocks already, just use 1% below previous Jan. low as stop loss, which is not much loss, I think.
3. HPQ may reverses the recent weakness of tech sector, let's see how it is going. In tech, I prefer MSFT, NOK as safe players. In general, I like low PE software sector than others - I'll try to discover some good one during this weekend. I don't like high PE baby which is risky, although, may profit in short term.
Resource第四贴: Coal
回顾一下过去一年 : 07年头到现在, 共14个月的时间, 大家猜猜commodity里哪样东西涨价按百分比涨得最厉害? 是石油? 黄金? 天然气? 农产品? 还是化肥? 呵呵, 都不是, 答案是煤. 煤在07年头是还只有$40/吨, 现在是差不多$120/吨. 200%的涨幅, 而且上升的趋势近期还止不住, 几乎是天天创新高啊 (你要是再看早一点, 跟03年的煤价比, 那就是500%+的涨幅, 我不知道这几年内有那样东西比这还疯狂). 套用股市的术语 : 这样涨法简直就是short squeeze嘛, 呵呵! 石油从$90到$100, 也就10%的涨幅, 但费了多少力气啊, 还来来回回拉锯似的没完没了, 黄金也就在$900上下磨磨叽叽, 想再涨个10%比登天还难似的. 农产品呢已经疯了这么久了, 农业股早就在半空中了, 在现在这个价位这个大盘的情况下, 还冲进农业板块建仓作价值投资是不理智的. 跟现货煤价比, 煤股倒还没怎么疯狂, 原因是多方面的, 下面会详细解释. 但中长期煤股股价赶上来以体现煤价暴涨是不争的事实, 所以这个板块是中长期看好 (我也不敢看太远, 变数太多, 但1~2年还是有保障的), 所以对价值投资者来说逢低介入这种初期启动或刚到半途的板块是很稳妥的选择.
要看清煤板块的潜力, 得先弄明白煤的天下大势. 大家都知道煤的主要用途是发电, 但看看这组数据. 全球电力来源:
Coal:40% Gas:20% Hydro:16% Nuclear:15% Oil:7% Solar&Wind:2%
呵呵, 没想到吧! 煤能占这么高的比例根本原因是跟其它方法比起来煤价还是便宜, 且一个行业形成了规模后想替代它就不容易了, 多少基础设施要放弃和重建, 多少网络要从头改造, 一个字: 难啊. 所以就算现在煤价涨这么高了但还得用, 这是没办法的办法. 想指望它跌回原来的价格去是不可能的, 也不现实的. 再看看具体到单个国家去, 看看煤发电在该国家电力中所占比例:
South Africa: 93% Australia: 80% China: 78%
India: 70% USA: 50% Germany: 47%
数字惊人哪!
煤在世界各个国家都有, 但无论产量, 储存量, 消耗量, 出口量都集中在几个国家手里. 数字最清楚, 大家看:
1. Top 10 coal producers (2006, 单位: Million ton):
China:2482 USA:990 India:427 Australia:310 South Africa:244
Russia:233 Indonesia:169 Poland:95 Kazakhstan:92 Columbia:64
2. Top 4 Reserves (2005, 单位: Billion ton)
USA:120 Russia:69 India:61 China:59
3. Top 10 coal importers (2006, 单位: Million ton)
Japan:178 Korea:80 Taiwan:64 UK:51 Germany:41
India:41 China:38 USA:33 Russia:25 Spain:24
4. Top exporters (2006, 单位: Million ton)
Australia:231 Indonesia:129 Russia:92 South Africa:69
China:63 Columbia:60 USA:45
数据稍微有点老, 但大概趋势是没错的. 中国以前是煤出口大国, 但从06年开始已基本进出平衡, 在07年已经变成净进口国了, 且进口量在逐步增加. 这数据还反应出另一个严重问题 : 中国对煤的消耗量巨大无比, 但剩余储量却不怎么样, 大家都知道一旦中国缺什么, 什么就疯涨. 至于日本那就更不用说了, 它家是什么资源都没有, 全要靠进口. 所以这些都是支持煤板块长期利好的基本面因素. 各个国家煤产量和出口量的巨大差异还体现出一个事实 : 大部分产煤国的产量都自己国内用掉了, 只有一小部分出口, 这导致国际煤现货交易市场的煤supple数量很少, 当一个东西的supply少的时候, 有个风吹草动什么的它的价格就很容易乱彪了. 事实上控制世界上煤交易的主要就是澳大利亚和南非, 特别是澳大利亚, 它占有决定性的力量 (就跟它家在铁矿石上的地位似的, 还有它在铀矿上的地位也是如此, 我以后在关于铀的帖里会讲到, NND, 真是个上天垂青的地方啊).
下面在讲一点点关于煤和煤交易的基础知识. 煤主要分两种 : 热煤 (Thermal coal) 和焦煤 (Coking coal). 热煤主要用来发电, 价格便宜; 焦煤用来炼钢, 价格很贵. 所以当你看煤价的时候要注意看是哪种煤的价格, 别搞错了. 还有, 国际上共有两个煤的交易市场, 每个市场的煤价也是不一样的. 分成两个交易市场是有历史原因的. 看看地球仪就明白了 : 前面说过两个煤老大是澳大利亚和南非. 澳大利亚主要向亚洲出口, 控制太平洋这边的市场; 南非主要向欧洲出口, 控制大西洋的市场. 这都是用船来运, 距离和成本都不一样, 所以需要两个现货交易市场且价格不一样. 头号交易市场当然就在澳大利亚, 在它的Newcastle港, 这个市场的煤价指数是NEWC Index; 第二个交易市场当然就在南非, 在它的Richards Bay港, 这个市场的煤价指数是RB Index. Coking coal是炼钢中必不可少的原材料, 但它的产量比Thermal coal少太多了, 用于出口交易的就更少. 看看下面的数据:
1. Top coking coal exporters (2006, 单位: Million ton)
Australia:121 Indonesia:25 USA:25 Russia:10
China:4 South Africa:1
2. Top coking coal importers (2006, 单位: Million ton)
Japan:73 Korea:20 India:19 China:9 Germany:9 UK:7 Taiwan:6
可以说基本在coking coal这一块是澳大利亚说了算的了, 标准的龙头老大. 老大一有个什么闪失那就天下大乱了. 最近这一波煤价疯涨就是因为老大出事了. 原因是最近澳大利亚Queensland州发百年难遇的大水, 很不巧它的煤矿都在那, 全给淹了. 淹的程度到了它的前六大煤矿公司全都发出了force majeure的警报. 在矿业界只有在出现很严重的非人力的灾难性的情况下导致没法履行交货合同的情况下才能发这个警报的, 表示公司出大事了. 看看这六个公司的名字 : BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA), Rio Tinto, Xstrata plc , Ensham Resources Ltd, Macarthur Coal Ltd, and Wesfarmers Ltd. 前三个都很熟悉, BTP是世界第一大产煤公司, Rio Tinto第二大, Xstrata第四大. 其它三个也都不小, 可想而知了. 中国的大雪是火上加油, 以中国对煤的依赖性和这次大雪对挖矿造成的破坏大家应该都很清楚, 我就不重复了. 南非的情况最搞笑. 作为煤的两巨头之一, 它家最近也遭灾了. 它的发电厂因为缺煤只好拉闸限电, 而它的煤矿因为缺电只好减产或停产, 而这又导致市场缺煤 -> 电厂拉闸, 极度搞笑, 大家都在那扯嘴皮, 互相责怪对方, 这真是民主政体的高度体现啊, 算开眼了. 这三个国家的事导致最近煤价疯了一样涨. 中国和南非在煤产量上的损失数字现在没出来, 但小不了, 澳大利亚估计是至少15Mt coking coal, 中国已限制煤的出口, 到四月份为止. BHP说它的煤矿生产受到的影响起码要持续六个月. 插一句题外话: 任何矿遭到这种严重的事故如矿体滑坡, 水淹等没半年左右是缓不过气来的. 一个明显的例子就是我心爱的TC, 自从07年11月出那个矿体滑坡的事后到现在都一蹶不振, 它那个矿体滑坡还不怎么严重,算不上大事故. CCJ的Cigar Lake铀矿给水淹后生产计划给推迟了整整两年. 所以不要以为洪水一退, 大雪一化就生产恢复正常, 煤价立马往下掉. 另外一点 : 煤矿一旦没法生产足够的煤来交货的话, 就要去现货市场买煤来履行合同, 再贵都得买, 否则违反合同陪得更厉害. 所以看这三个国家煤产量受多大影响也就能知道现货市场里的购买力量增加了多少. 那些大发电厂, 大钢厂为了防止未来几年煤价涨太利害都会希望在现有价位上买更多的煤储藏起来以保证今后的生产, 否则现在不买到明年更贵. 而增加购买量又毫无疑问会继续推高煤的价格. 这真是一个很痛苦的事, 估计那些电厂钢厂想到这里时连杀人的心都有了, 呵呵.
煤矿界还有个特点: 每年四月一号前购买方和供货方敲定来年合同和煤价. 现货煤价涨了这么多, 这种长期合同的煤价肯定也要涨不少了. 对关心个股的人来说, 这时就要仔细看哪家煤矿剩余老合同少, 新合同多. 煤矿因为产量大, 很多大煤矿为了保证收入都是签了长期供货合同, 价格事先固定好的. 过去十年全球对煤的需求每年增长约6%, 下面十年也基本差不多. 关心煤的还要注意Coal-to-Gas (CTG) Coal-To-Liquid(CTL)的动向, 就是把煤液化或气化以达到部分替代石油的目的. 就象现在的Bio-fuel一样, 一旦要开始实施的话煤的需求会迅速上升, 就象现在Bio-fuel导致的后果一样.
现在看看煤的现货价和合同价. 就说thermal coal吧, 因为交易的主要都是thermal coal. 价格以吨为单位. RB Index 二月现货价是$118, NEWC Index二月现货价是$139, 合同价要到四月一号才出来, UBS估计的合同价是08年$100, 09年$125. JPMorgan估计的合同价是thermal coal 08年$90, coking coal 08年$140. 而在过去的07年合同价是thermal coal $55, coking coal $98. Queensland州发大水受影响的主要是产coking coal 的煤矿, 以我们前面看到的数据可以知道coking coal的价格肯定还要涨的. 现在的现货价是约$210, 最新的消息是一家煤矿跟客户在商量$275的销售价格. 这东西供应量这么少, 全球钢产量又那么大, 你不买别人买, 没得商量的. JPMorgan对coking coal 08年合同价的估计其实很保守, 其他很多分析家的估价是$160~170. 很快四月一号就要到了, 大家到时看看到底谁的估计准确. 从这些信息可以得知大家挑选煤股的时候要尽量挑那些产coking coal的煤矿, thermal coal 的产量很快能上来, coking coal 就不是这么回事了. 从煤价的变化和趋势我们还可以推断另外一个情况: 钢材板块. 目前钢的成本中12%来自coking coal. 现在coking coal涨得这么凶, 钢厂受到的伤害非常深, 再加上这两天关于08年铁矿石涨价65%的消息, 基本可以断定: 钢材板块巨大利空, 远离!
好了, 关于煤的基本面就说到这, 最后给大家提供一个估算一个煤矿公司book value的小技巧 :它的探明煤储量乘个3就差不多是它所值的钱. 拿这个数字跟它的market capital比一下就知道这个公司是undervalued 还是overvalued. 这是煤矿界用的老方法, 但现在煤价涨了这么多, 这个比例也要调整了, 最新的估算方法是乘个6.
最后是我的watchlist上的煤股票, 它们的投资价值如同排列顺序, 从高到低. 短期这些股大都因涨幅太大, 都应该有回调, 建议耐心等候, 逢低逐步入场, 具体买卖价点大家就自己把握吧.
美股 : KOL BTU ARLP TCK PCX ACI CNX ANR ICO JRCC
加股 : SCP.TO CCJ.TO FDG-UN.TO TCK-B.TO IVN.TO
HLB.TO WTN.TO GCE.TO WCI.V RH.V ERD.TO FT.TO QGX.TO
因列出的股票太多, 没法一一详细分析, 以后看机会再说吧, 我这里就大概点评一下:
KOL: 是煤板块的ETF, 涨得慢跌得也慢, 不如个股活跃, 看个人喜好.
BTU: 煤板块的King, 爱做大股, 龙头股的可以关注它, 6.8%的分红.
ARLP: 绩优股, pe很低, 还有5.8%的分红, 明年产量增加8%~10%, 但储量少了些, 且全是热煤, 需要收购其它煤矿来维持发展.
TCK: 加拿大base metal界的老大, 煤只是它的一部分, undervalued.
PCX: 去年11月1号刚从BTU spinoff出来, 储量巨大 (相对它的公司规模来说), 08, 09前景看好, 焦煤比例不少.
ACI: 老合同偏多, 但08, 09年计划增长幅度很大.
CNX: 同上. 大煤矿都是这样, 手头一堆长期供货老合同.
ANR: Q4业绩下降得厉害, 煤储量小, 收购其它煤矿迫在眉睫. 08, 09业绩增长看好.
ICO: 负业绩, 08年有望扭亏为盈, 股价远低于book value, 储量巨大, 特别是coking coal的储量不错, 被收购的好对象.
JRCC: 负业绩, 小公司, 但股价远低于book value, 唯一希望在被收购.
SCP.TO: 资源类投资公司, 做了单非常好的生意, 在煤价彪涨前收购了美国一家焦煤矿的部分股份, 捡了个大便宜, book value $3以上, 建议在$2附近strong buy.
CCJ.TO: 被收购对象, 现股价$2.45, book value $5.5, 建议在$2~2.2附近strong buy.
FDG-UN.TO: 被收购对象, 5%的分红. 但目前股价已到高位, 剩余上升空间不多, 唯一价值在被收购, 看哪个冤大头会跳出来.
TCK-B.TO: 就是TCK, 其实应该反过来说, 因为它本质上是加拿大的股票, TCK只是它的美股ADR, 跟着对应的加股走. 它是FDG-UN.TO的潜在买家之一. 目前股价现在算undervalued, 长线投资好对象. $30以下buy, $25 strong buy.
IVN.TO: 在蒙古拥有储量巨大的金铜矿和煤矿, 但现在蒙古政府压着不让开发, 一旦那天批了, 股价就要飞了, 起码翻倍. 需密切关注消息面.
其它都是些低价小屁股, 股价动不动上下翻飞的, 没事就在它们身上操练DT吧.
就先写这么些吧, 希望能对板上的朋友有用, 能帮着大家赚些钱就更好了. 若有其它的问题上老沈的MSN群或他新开的YAHOO GROUP上去问吧, 我常驻在那边, 地址是 :
mgroup68062@hotmail.com
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/iamwym-stock
若问加股的话就上我的小群去吧: group100774@msnzone.cn
要看清煤板块的潜力, 得先弄明白煤的天下大势. 大家都知道煤的主要用途是发电, 但看看这组数据. 全球电力来源:
Coal:40% Gas:20% Hydro:16% Nuclear:15% Oil:7% Solar&Wind:2%
呵呵, 没想到吧! 煤能占这么高的比例根本原因是跟其它方法比起来煤价还是便宜, 且一个行业形成了规模后想替代它就不容易了, 多少基础设施要放弃和重建, 多少网络要从头改造, 一个字: 难啊. 所以就算现在煤价涨这么高了但还得用, 这是没办法的办法. 想指望它跌回原来的价格去是不可能的, 也不现实的. 再看看具体到单个国家去, 看看煤发电在该国家电力中所占比例:
South Africa: 93% Australia: 80% China: 78%
India: 70% USA: 50% Germany: 47%
数字惊人哪!
煤在世界各个国家都有, 但无论产量, 储存量, 消耗量, 出口量都集中在几个国家手里. 数字最清楚, 大家看:
1. Top 10 coal producers (2006, 单位: Million ton):
China:2482 USA:990 India:427 Australia:310 South Africa:244
Russia:233 Indonesia:169 Poland:95 Kazakhstan:92 Columbia:64
2. Top 4 Reserves (2005, 单位: Billion ton)
USA:120 Russia:69 India:61 China:59
3. Top 10 coal importers (2006, 单位: Million ton)
Japan:178 Korea:80 Taiwan:64 UK:51 Germany:41
India:41 China:38 USA:33 Russia:25 Spain:24
4. Top exporters (2006, 单位: Million ton)
Australia:231 Indonesia:129 Russia:92 South Africa:69
China:63 Columbia:60 USA:45
数据稍微有点老, 但大概趋势是没错的. 中国以前是煤出口大国, 但从06年开始已基本进出平衡, 在07年已经变成净进口国了, 且进口量在逐步增加. 这数据还反应出另一个严重问题 : 中国对煤的消耗量巨大无比, 但剩余储量却不怎么样, 大家都知道一旦中国缺什么, 什么就疯涨. 至于日本那就更不用说了, 它家是什么资源都没有, 全要靠进口. 所以这些都是支持煤板块长期利好的基本面因素. 各个国家煤产量和出口量的巨大差异还体现出一个事实 : 大部分产煤国的产量都自己国内用掉了, 只有一小部分出口, 这导致国际煤现货交易市场的煤supple数量很少, 当一个东西的supply少的时候, 有个风吹草动什么的它的价格就很容易乱彪了. 事实上控制世界上煤交易的主要就是澳大利亚和南非, 特别是澳大利亚, 它占有决定性的力量 (就跟它家在铁矿石上的地位似的, 还有它在铀矿上的地位也是如此, 我以后在关于铀的帖里会讲到, NND, 真是个上天垂青的地方啊).
下面在讲一点点关于煤和煤交易的基础知识. 煤主要分两种 : 热煤 (Thermal coal) 和焦煤 (Coking coal). 热煤主要用来发电, 价格便宜; 焦煤用来炼钢, 价格很贵. 所以当你看煤价的时候要注意看是哪种煤的价格, 别搞错了. 还有, 国际上共有两个煤的交易市场, 每个市场的煤价也是不一样的. 分成两个交易市场是有历史原因的. 看看地球仪就明白了 : 前面说过两个煤老大是澳大利亚和南非. 澳大利亚主要向亚洲出口, 控制太平洋这边的市场; 南非主要向欧洲出口, 控制大西洋的市场. 这都是用船来运, 距离和成本都不一样, 所以需要两个现货交易市场且价格不一样. 头号交易市场当然就在澳大利亚, 在它的Newcastle港, 这个市场的煤价指数是NEWC Index; 第二个交易市场当然就在南非, 在它的Richards Bay港, 这个市场的煤价指数是RB Index. Coking coal是炼钢中必不可少的原材料, 但它的产量比Thermal coal少太多了, 用于出口交易的就更少. 看看下面的数据:
1. Top coking coal exporters (2006, 单位: Million ton)
Australia:121 Indonesia:25 USA:25 Russia:10
China:4 South Africa:1
2. Top coking coal importers (2006, 单位: Million ton)
Japan:73 Korea:20 India:19 China:9 Germany:9 UK:7 Taiwan:6
可以说基本在coking coal这一块是澳大利亚说了算的了, 标准的龙头老大. 老大一有个什么闪失那就天下大乱了. 最近这一波煤价疯涨就是因为老大出事了. 原因是最近澳大利亚Queensland州发百年难遇的大水, 很不巧它的煤矿都在那, 全给淹了. 淹的程度到了它的前六大煤矿公司全都发出了force majeure的警报. 在矿业界只有在出现很严重的非人力的灾难性的情况下导致没法履行交货合同的情况下才能发这个警报的, 表示公司出大事了. 看看这六个公司的名字 : BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA), Rio Tinto, Xstrata plc , Ensham Resources Ltd, Macarthur Coal Ltd, and Wesfarmers Ltd. 前三个都很熟悉, BTP是世界第一大产煤公司, Rio Tinto第二大, Xstrata第四大. 其它三个也都不小, 可想而知了. 中国的大雪是火上加油, 以中国对煤的依赖性和这次大雪对挖矿造成的破坏大家应该都很清楚, 我就不重复了. 南非的情况最搞笑. 作为煤的两巨头之一, 它家最近也遭灾了. 它的发电厂因为缺煤只好拉闸限电, 而它的煤矿因为缺电只好减产或停产, 而这又导致市场缺煤 -> 电厂拉闸, 极度搞笑, 大家都在那扯嘴皮, 互相责怪对方, 这真是民主政体的高度体现啊, 算开眼了. 这三个国家的事导致最近煤价疯了一样涨. 中国和南非在煤产量上的损失数字现在没出来, 但小不了, 澳大利亚估计是至少15Mt coking coal, 中国已限制煤的出口, 到四月份为止. BHP说它的煤矿生产受到的影响起码要持续六个月. 插一句题外话: 任何矿遭到这种严重的事故如矿体滑坡, 水淹等没半年左右是缓不过气来的. 一个明显的例子就是我心爱的TC, 自从07年11月出那个矿体滑坡的事后到现在都一蹶不振, 它那个矿体滑坡还不怎么严重,算不上大事故. CCJ的Cigar Lake铀矿给水淹后生产计划给推迟了整整两年. 所以不要以为洪水一退, 大雪一化就生产恢复正常, 煤价立马往下掉. 另外一点 : 煤矿一旦没法生产足够的煤来交货的话, 就要去现货市场买煤来履行合同, 再贵都得买, 否则违反合同陪得更厉害. 所以看这三个国家煤产量受多大影响也就能知道现货市场里的购买力量增加了多少. 那些大发电厂, 大钢厂为了防止未来几年煤价涨太利害都会希望在现有价位上买更多的煤储藏起来以保证今后的生产, 否则现在不买到明年更贵. 而增加购买量又毫无疑问会继续推高煤的价格. 这真是一个很痛苦的事, 估计那些电厂钢厂想到这里时连杀人的心都有了, 呵呵.
煤矿界还有个特点: 每年四月一号前购买方和供货方敲定来年合同和煤价. 现货煤价涨了这么多, 这种长期合同的煤价肯定也要涨不少了. 对关心个股的人来说, 这时就要仔细看哪家煤矿剩余老合同少, 新合同多. 煤矿因为产量大, 很多大煤矿为了保证收入都是签了长期供货合同, 价格事先固定好的. 过去十年全球对煤的需求每年增长约6%, 下面十年也基本差不多. 关心煤的还要注意Coal-to-Gas (CTG) Coal-To-Liquid(CTL)的动向, 就是把煤液化或气化以达到部分替代石油的目的. 就象现在的Bio-fuel一样, 一旦要开始实施的话煤的需求会迅速上升, 就象现在Bio-fuel导致的后果一样.
现在看看煤的现货价和合同价. 就说thermal coal吧, 因为交易的主要都是thermal coal. 价格以吨为单位. RB Index 二月现货价是$118, NEWC Index二月现货价是$139, 合同价要到四月一号才出来, UBS估计的合同价是08年$100, 09年$125. JPMorgan估计的合同价是thermal coal 08年$90, coking coal 08年$140. 而在过去的07年合同价是thermal coal $55, coking coal $98. Queensland州发大水受影响的主要是产coking coal 的煤矿, 以我们前面看到的数据可以知道coking coal的价格肯定还要涨的. 现在的现货价是约$210, 最新的消息是一家煤矿跟客户在商量$275的销售价格. 这东西供应量这么少, 全球钢产量又那么大, 你不买别人买, 没得商量的. JPMorgan对coking coal 08年合同价的估计其实很保守, 其他很多分析家的估价是$160~170. 很快四月一号就要到了, 大家到时看看到底谁的估计准确. 从这些信息可以得知大家挑选煤股的时候要尽量挑那些产coking coal的煤矿, thermal coal 的产量很快能上来, coking coal 就不是这么回事了. 从煤价的变化和趋势我们还可以推断另外一个情况: 钢材板块. 目前钢的成本中12%来自coking coal. 现在coking coal涨得这么凶, 钢厂受到的伤害非常深, 再加上这两天关于08年铁矿石涨价65%的消息, 基本可以断定: 钢材板块巨大利空, 远离!
好了, 关于煤的基本面就说到这, 最后给大家提供一个估算一个煤矿公司book value的小技巧 :它的探明煤储量乘个3就差不多是它所值的钱. 拿这个数字跟它的market capital比一下就知道这个公司是undervalued 还是overvalued. 这是煤矿界用的老方法, 但现在煤价涨了这么多, 这个比例也要调整了, 最新的估算方法是乘个6.
最后是我的watchlist上的煤股票, 它们的投资价值如同排列顺序, 从高到低. 短期这些股大都因涨幅太大, 都应该有回调, 建议耐心等候, 逢低逐步入场, 具体买卖价点大家就自己把握吧.
美股 : KOL BTU ARLP TCK PCX ACI CNX ANR ICO JRCC
加股 : SCP.TO CCJ.TO FDG-UN.TO TCK-B.TO IVN.TO
HLB.TO WTN.TO GCE.TO WCI.V RH.V ERD.TO FT.TO QGX.TO
因列出的股票太多, 没法一一详细分析, 以后看机会再说吧, 我这里就大概点评一下:
KOL: 是煤板块的ETF, 涨得慢跌得也慢, 不如个股活跃, 看个人喜好.
BTU: 煤板块的King, 爱做大股, 龙头股的可以关注它, 6.8%的分红.
ARLP: 绩优股, pe很低, 还有5.8%的分红, 明年产量增加8%~10%, 但储量少了些, 且全是热煤, 需要收购其它煤矿来维持发展.
TCK: 加拿大base metal界的老大, 煤只是它的一部分, undervalued.
PCX: 去年11月1号刚从BTU spinoff出来, 储量巨大 (相对它的公司规模来说), 08, 09前景看好, 焦煤比例不少.
ACI: 老合同偏多, 但08, 09年计划增长幅度很大.
CNX: 同上. 大煤矿都是这样, 手头一堆长期供货老合同.
ANR: Q4业绩下降得厉害, 煤储量小, 收购其它煤矿迫在眉睫. 08, 09业绩增长看好.
ICO: 负业绩, 08年有望扭亏为盈, 股价远低于book value, 储量巨大, 特别是coking coal的储量不错, 被收购的好对象.
JRCC: 负业绩, 小公司, 但股价远低于book value, 唯一希望在被收购.
SCP.TO: 资源类投资公司, 做了单非常好的生意, 在煤价彪涨前收购了美国一家焦煤矿的部分股份, 捡了个大便宜, book value $3以上, 建议在$2附近strong buy.
CCJ.TO: 被收购对象, 现股价$2.45, book value $5.5, 建议在$2~2.2附近strong buy.
FDG-UN.TO: 被收购对象, 5%的分红. 但目前股价已到高位, 剩余上升空间不多, 唯一价值在被收购, 看哪个冤大头会跳出来.
TCK-B.TO: 就是TCK, 其实应该反过来说, 因为它本质上是加拿大的股票, TCK只是它的美股ADR, 跟着对应的加股走. 它是FDG-UN.TO的潜在买家之一. 目前股价现在算undervalued, 长线投资好对象. $30以下buy, $25 strong buy.
IVN.TO: 在蒙古拥有储量巨大的金铜矿和煤矿, 但现在蒙古政府压着不让开发, 一旦那天批了, 股价就要飞了, 起码翻倍. 需密切关注消息面.
其它都是些低价小屁股, 股价动不动上下翻飞的, 没事就在它们身上操练DT吧.
就先写这么些吧, 希望能对板上的朋友有用, 能帮着大家赚些钱就更好了. 若有其它的问题上老沈的MSN群或他新开的YAHOO GROUP上去问吧, 我常驻在那边, 地址是 :
mgroup68062@hotmail.com
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/iamwym-stock
若问加股的话就上我的小群去吧: group100774@msnzone.cn
Monday, February 18, 2008
Feb-18 Daily market comments
I didn't expect my timing much on my prediction about finance rebound. Due to the news coming from Northern Rock, EU stocks have a great run today. My theory is that sometimes TA could predict some changes triggered by events. Some great TA people can event predict M&A based on clues institutional movements. Sounds ridiculous but to be honest, this is true, and is proved in A-share and H-share markets.
OK, let's get back to the market. I am traveling to Slovenia by train all day long so I don't have chance to go online until 30 minutes ago. I am not sure if you have caught this great opportunity this morning, because:
1. If you have IB or other broker that can access EU markets, you can simply buy US stocks in Frankfurt as soon as you see the news from Northern Rock.
2. Even earlier, you should buy HK banks in no time this morning. As HK market is closed before EU open, so you see HK dips 1.62% today but I bet it will open high tomorrow and the banks will lead following UK. Don't tell me you don't know the HK market was built by English people.
If you haven't done so, you can also try to jump in if and only if HK market do not gap up very much tomorrow.
Please note, money never runs into a hurrying pocket. If you don't have this chance, wait patiently for the other one.
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Weekly Strategy 17 Feb
In general, I still think BRC (Brazil, Russian, China) markets are at the position of strategic investment for long term purpose (more than 1year).
For next week, I'll go to Slovenia for project meeting, while I'll not be able to stay online as usual, also I am not be able to cover the intraday trading strategies.
Today I would like you to draw attention to following stocks next week on my pick list:
Finance: JPM LEH
Metal: RIO, PCU, FCX, PKX
Food and Ag: WBD MOS
Energy: PBR CEO CPL
Health: NVO TEVA
As we know, next 19th and 20th are key to the direction of overall market, in particular, I've seen some signals for a rebound of financial sector. If it happens in next 1 or 2 trading days, we at least will see another test of 12750, the very probably 13000, and 13200 possibly.
Tech was weak in previous trading day and I assume it will continue to rebound as it has been oversold in mid-term.
Signals show that we will have an uptrend to 13000 area in next 2-3 weeks if we see the rebound of financial and tech sectors in next 1-2 trading days unless I have another warning message sent around later. So I would propose that a half position of the stock account can be put into long side in this case. The above-listed stocks are preferable to me for these long positions.
Please bear in mind my stop-loss strategy: You only buy on the intraday resistance and use very tight stop loss (1%) to control your risk. In this case, you can make money even half your judgment is wrong.
For next week, I'll go to Slovenia for project meeting, while I'll not be able to stay online as usual, also I am not be able to cover the intraday trading strategies.
Today I would like you to draw attention to following stocks next week on my pick list:
Finance: JPM LEH
Metal: RIO, PCU, FCX, PKX
Food and Ag: WBD MOS
Energy: PBR CEO CPL
Health: NVO TEVA
As we know, next 19th and 20th are key to the direction of overall market, in particular, I've seen some signals for a rebound of financial sector. If it happens in next 1 or 2 trading days, we at least will see another test of 12750, the very probably 13000, and 13200 possibly.
Tech was weak in previous trading day and I assume it will continue to rebound as it has been oversold in mid-term.
Signals show that we will have an uptrend to 13000 area in next 2-3 weeks if we see the rebound of financial and tech sectors in next 1-2 trading days unless I have another warning message sent around later. So I would propose that a half position of the stock account can be put into long side in this case. The above-listed stocks are preferable to me for these long positions.
Please bear in mind my stop-loss strategy: You only buy on the intraday resistance and use very tight stop loss (1%) to control your risk. In this case, you can make money even half your judgment is wrong.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
上两张GS的图研究一下
三天三分钟线正好收在618 fib retracement上，大家可以看到拉阳量时候爆出的量很大，特别是最后一个椭圆区域，量是比较夸张的。周二存在可能再次确认底部，被破，一泻千里，守住或者直接飞的话，呵呵，我们看月线会如何。
10年月线，1年来回撤都会固守fib retracement，且，大家发现没有，10年来，GS就从来没有4个月以上的阴线，如果这个规律得到印证，那么我们将至少看到1-2个月的月线收 阳。其实我很喜欢看月线，正是11月的月线预测了3个月的下跌啊，呵呵，和村长有过一段悄悄话说过这事儿，结果真的验证了，呵呵……
Friday, February 8, 2008
FEB 7 -- 上图分析下QQQQ的量价分布
图上可以看到两处爆量点，一个是早盘的冲高，一个是下午盘的支撑，都是多空双方的争夺激烈的战场。可以发现今天才是多空双方较量的主战场，因为12200是DOW的.50 retrace点，如果被带量击破，下面除了previous low基本上没什么好的支撑，且naz如果支撑失败，收盘价就是很明显的new low，无法有比较好看的收盘双底形态了。
总体上，QQQQ今天的量大过前几天的阴量，今天可以说是一个accumulation day，有人说是不是short cover呢？呵呵，我觉得short大多都在想在previous low cover吧。且short cover加上buyer，估计这指数就很高了。那么为什么不大彪300点呢？呵呵，谁这么傻，拉高给你烧，还要慢慢consolidation呢。
QQQQ是这场大战的缩影。大家经常看intraday就会发现，大盘股从跌转涨的那个低点上一般市量较大的地方，大盘也差不多，料接下去几天应该会偏bullish点了。
操作以short put为主，tight stop。
FEB 6 -- 关于未来
i have to say sorry about my judgement about tech rebounce, although tech already tried a little bit from yesterday to today morning. csco breaks up everything.
good thing is my picks are not so bad up to now, fertilizers, gold, miners, steel makers (pkx is the only loser compare to aks and mtl...), however, i have to say, please, please reduce your position on fertilizers before friday, after cf's er.
1. fertilizers will be the last ones to drop in ths mkt, and they will retest lows as well
2. no problem on their fa, so just buy back when they low
if you really want some fertilizers, keep them light weight, if you want to hedge your short positions, buy some march calls of gold stocks.
if there is something can long, still, gold, miners, fertilizers, no fa problem, will go up when mkt rebounce.
happy new year. hopefully we can still beat mkt in new year, maybe just by losing less... thanks for your support for past months
good thing is my picks are not so bad up to now, fertilizers, gold, miners, steel makers (pkx is the only loser compare to aks and mtl...), however, i have to say, please, please reduce your position on fertilizers before friday, after cf's er.
1. fertilizers will be the last ones to drop in ths mkt, and they will retest lows as well
2. no problem on their fa, so just buy back when they low
if you really want some fertilizers, keep them light weight, if you want to hedge your short positions, buy some march calls of gold stocks.
if there is something can long, still, gold, miners, fertilizers, no fa problem, will go up when mkt rebounce.
happy new year. hopefully we can still beat mkt in new year, maybe just by losing less... thanks for your support for past months
FEB 4 -- 总结
今日dow和naz，包括QQQQ在TA上看是这样的
1. 量比昨天小
2. 价都在昨天的范围内
正好是量价双包反过来的形态，量价被包，今天是小量阴线，昨天是大量阳线，出货迹象不明显，且相对较弱的NAZ在五日均线和十日均线上找到了支撑，这两根均线已经金叉，五日均线有向上高于十日均线的趋势。
因此概率上后面几天是偏bullish的。
经过今天的下跌，AAPL GOOG MSFT全都在日线上超卖，且AAPL GOOG在周线上中期超卖，不说FA吧，在TA上都是有反弹需求的。
关于p总的操作，我的看法：
short 44p等于是抓了个44p的顶，至于short 49c，赚点time value吧
1. 量比昨天小
2. 价都在昨天的范围内
正好是量价双包反过来的形态，量价被包，今天是小量阴线，昨天是大量阳线，出货迹象不明显，且相对较弱的NAZ在五日均线和十日均线上找到了支撑，这两根均线已经金叉，五日均线有向上高于十日均线的趋势。
因此概率上后面几天是偏bullish的。
经过今天的下跌，AAPL GOOG MSFT全都在日线上超卖，且AAPL GOOG在周线上中期超卖，不说FA吧，在TA上都是有反弹需求的。
关于p总的操作，我的看法：
short 44p等于是抓了个44p的顶，至于short 49c，赚点time value吧
关于是不是进入了recession
这个问题的答案就是，是的，我们确实在recession当中。那么股票的底部是不是还在远方，这不一定。根据经济规律周期，往往股市在确认经济复苏前一个Q，就已经触底了。这个speculation已经在home builder sector上体现出来了。因为自然地，loan在3%的低利息环境下，已经有了基本面的可能开始复苏。当然也许这会在1个月后的数据中化为泡影，那么我们至少难抓一波这样的speculation吧。经历过熊市的人都知道，熊市的反弹往往是最剧烈疯狂的。
反弹长命和短命的理由
简单说说反弹长命短命的理由。
长命：
1. 周线上三大指数超卖，昨天收盘，周线算脱离bbands下线，其他指数预示周线中期反弹继续，类似形态10年中不断出现，除了唯一的2006年中的2次探底，这个一会儿分析。
2.月线守住2年线，料2月月线收阳，后面至少几个月盘整，才会继续探底，这是00-03熊市的经验，很少有守住了2年线之后第二个月继续下探的。
短命：
1. 类似于2006年需要2次探底，不过2006年在通道比较平稳情况下我们看到了2次探底，且跌幅不及这次快速猛烈，所以这点不是很牢靠。
2.指数个不少个股都到了反弹阻力位附近，12850是fib retrace点，13000是bbands上限，等等，这些都是日线上的形态。
总结一下，下周面临短期调整，但考虑到AAPL GOOG都在中期炒卖位，特别GOOG上市来就没被这么超卖过，调整后下波反弹料他们会领涨NAZ，还有MSFT的反弹也会贡献很多。下周不具备整周狂跌的基本面基础，主要是下周一揽子央行降息预期，以及居高不下的commodity价格。
发现很多老手也有不少bias，bullish bearish都有，感觉炒股忌讳这点吧，呵呵，大家周末愉快～
长命：
1. 周线上三大指数超卖，昨天收盘，周线算脱离bbands下线，其他指数预示周线中期反弹继续，类似形态10年中不断出现，除了唯一的2006年中的2次探底，这个一会儿分析。
2.月线守住2年线，料2月月线收阳，后面至少几个月盘整，才会继续探底，这是00-03熊市的经验，很少有守住了2年线之后第二个月继续下探的。
短命：
1. 类似于2006年需要2次探底，不过2006年在通道比较平稳情况下我们看到了2次探底，且跌幅不及这次快速猛烈，所以这点不是很牢靠。
2.指数个不少个股都到了反弹阻力位附近，12850是fib retrace点，13000是bbands上限，等等，这些都是日线上的形态。
总结一下，下周面临短期调整，但考虑到AAPL GOOG都在中期炒卖位，特别GOOG上市来就没被这么超卖过，调整后下波反弹料他们会领涨NAZ，还有MSFT的反弹也会贡献很多。下周不具备整周狂跌的基本面基础，主要是下周一揽子央行降息预期，以及居高不下的commodity价格。
发现很多老手也有不少bias，bullish bearish都有，感觉炒股忌讳这点吧，呵呵，大家周末愉快～
谈谈美中铝业联合收购力拓
要是说化肥有COKE和我站在一个阵线上面，那基本上工业金属矿业就是我孤军奋战了，偶尔tarega同学支持一下钼，呵呵。
上次记得写过一篇关于RTP被收购的文章，当时的传言是中国钢铁公司联合收购RTP，后来被否认，当时我的分析是，中国应该收购RTP一部分股份，而不是全部，这样无论对于中国付出的代价，以及RTP的接受程度，都有好处。主要中方如果全资收购，一是资金困难，二是中国缺乏管理经验，把RTP搞倒了都有可能。最近这几天当BHP加紧收购RTP的时候，中国这边终于有了动静，结果是ACH联合AA收购RTP 12%股份，这有几层含义呢？
1. AA收购ALCAN失败，被RTP抢去，一直耿耿于怀。
2. ACH预料2009年以后中国从铝出口国变成铝进口国，所以也需要在以后的国际铝价上拥有自己的发言权，防止类似于铁矿石的尴尬情况再次重现。
3. 我们不难看出国资委同时作为钢厂和ACH的大东家，在其中起的作用，如果BHP收购成功，那么对铁矿石谈判来说，中国将非常不利，可能被迫答应澳方要求，那么通过收购RTP 12%的股份，以比较小的代价，消除一定的劣势，将是比较聪明的办法。
同时很高兴作为中国企业，中国铝业终于到了这样的一天，能够和AA这样的公司一起联合bid RTP这样的全球第三大矿业公司的股份，让人感到非常欣慰。
上次记得写过一篇关于RTP被收购的文章，当时的传言是中国钢铁公司联合收购RTP，后来被否认，当时我的分析是，中国应该收购RTP一部分股份，而不是全部，这样无论对于中国付出的代价，以及RTP的接受程度，都有好处。主要中方如果全资收购，一是资金困难，二是中国缺乏管理经验，把RTP搞倒了都有可能。最近这几天当BHP加紧收购RTP的时候，中国这边终于有了动静，结果是ACH联合AA收购RTP 12%股份，这有几层含义呢？
1. AA收购ALCAN失败，被RTP抢去，一直耿耿于怀。
2. ACH预料2009年以后中国从铝出口国变成铝进口国，所以也需要在以后的国际铝价上拥有自己的发言权，防止类似于铁矿石的尴尬情况再次重现。
3. 我们不难看出国资委同时作为钢厂和ACH的大东家，在其中起的作用，如果BHP收购成功，那么对铁矿石谈判来说，中国将非常不利，可能被迫答应澳方要求，那么通过收购RTP 12%的股份，以比较小的代价，消除一定的劣势，将是比较聪明的办法。
同时很高兴作为中国企业，中国铝业终于到了这样的一天，能够和AA这样的公司一起联合bid RTP这样的全球第三大矿业公司的股份，让人感到非常欣慰。
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)