AUG-12 Fed Rate Decision

Just forward my message sent to some of my friends this morning.

I feel it's very likely today Fed won't change rates but will cite the economy is in faster recovery phase, may hint Fed will hike rates by year-end or so. This may bring up USD for short-term, till end of August.

Actually to me everything matches. Metal price are now too high to avoid a correction. Everyone knows inflation so the market maker should teach retailer investors a lesson by bring down the broad commodity price. Also, for stocks, 9300-9400 for DOW is a major resistance, to form a V shape recovery by an inverse head-and-shoulder bottom, there should be a symmetric correction back to 8800-8900 area, which also tells us a USD recovery and commodity price down.

Another indicators are IBs usually upgrade stocks and target price, major news paper tell people "this is beginning of the bull market". Of couse, they are not cheating if you look back a year later, but for now... Normally August should be a quite piggy market as most people going for vacation, so a mild correction is reasonable.

If the market is crazy, it is also possible that DOW have new high today or tomorrow, then I am wrong, which is quite unlikely by looking at A share now.