It looks the market is really afraid of the Non-farm payroll data that will be released tomorrow. Nobody is not optimistic about this data, In the market, most people are wrong.
We have already priced in a moderately bad data tomorrow. However, by looking at the weekly jobless claim, it is possible that tomorrow the data will not be that bad.
Am I encouraging you to enter long position now? No, I am not.
I am going to provide you some strategies:
1. If you long stocks, say, Tech or commodities, I suggest you to hedge or reduce your long position.
2. If you short stocks, I suggest you keep your short position, but buy a little financial calls, such as JPM, which has several day decline and BBands lower band touch.
This is TA-wise, for short term, I believe in TA. No matter the data, if it is good, market will drop for a reason, if it is bad, market will use rate cut hope to pump. Whatever, big fish has the final word. We just need to do our own good.
Good luck!
Thursday, March 6, 2008
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Why am I saying it's time for strategic investment for H-shares
1. Low PE. PE should not be the only reason to invest but it should be a good reason. Once you have really cheap stocks around H-share, and you see China is booming for next 11-5 period, with many infrastructures that are going to be built, as well as many big projects, etc, you know low PE for Chinese stocks will not be a long term scheme.
2. Recent weakness. We have similar points compare to mid-2007s, while we have decent ERs ahead for major Chinese companies, I really see recent weakness is a good entry for long term investment.
3. TA-wise. We see major Chinese stocks are more or less standing above the major resistance, such as LFC, CHL, etc. The reason why market makers are not pumping them is just lacking of enough cheap chips. I am 100% sure they are accumulating now and will do in the next months, while global market is weak.
4. Many people say small factories in China now are closing their business. This is a good sign. We are now exporting electronical, machinery, communication devices, why should we still export these T-shirts? It's now for Vietnam and Thailand people to do this.
5. I am really happy to see the credit crisis. Without this crisis, I was really afraid of the over-hot Chinese stock market that may lead to a total crash, as well as the hot Chinese economy. Now we believe Chinese economy will be cooler than expected, so we begin to build rail ways, enhance infrastructure, increase local investment without worrying much about economy going crazy. At least, the market crash is postponed greatly and we won't see that in near future.
However, these assumptions are built upon peace, any war will break this. I think we don't need to worry about this too much because it is somehow out of our control and expectation.
2. Recent weakness. We have similar points compare to mid-2007s, while we have decent ERs ahead for major Chinese companies, I really see recent weakness is a good entry for long term investment.
3. TA-wise. We see major Chinese stocks are more or less standing above the major resistance, such as LFC, CHL, etc. The reason why market makers are not pumping them is just lacking of enough cheap chips. I am 100% sure they are accumulating now and will do in the next months, while global market is weak.
4. Many people say small factories in China now are closing their business. This is a good sign. We are now exporting electronical, machinery, communication devices, why should we still export these T-shirts? It's now for Vietnam and Thailand people to do this.
5. I am really happy to see the credit crisis. Without this crisis, I was really afraid of the over-hot Chinese stock market that may lead to a total crash, as well as the hot Chinese economy. Now we believe Chinese economy will be cooler than expected, so we begin to build rail ways, enhance infrastructure, increase local investment without worrying much about economy going crazy. At least, the market crash is postponed greatly and we won't see that in near future.
However, these assumptions are built upon peace, any war will break this. I think we don't need to worry about this too much because it is somehow out of our control and expectation.
Mar-05 Daily Strategy
We now see some strength of the market, then we can think about how to benefit from it. As I suggested, if you fished some Tech and Home Builders during AH yesterday, then now they are in good shape. We need to consider some other actions of today. I would suggest to watch several stocks for another swing.
[CEO] this baby has had correction and I think it's time for her to show some strength as OIL rises.
Chinese telecom stocks may have another swing up, such as CN CHU CHA, today is their first day up and I expect 2-3 another upward swing.
These H-share ADRs can be loaded if and only if the market is set to green today with more than 60 points gain of DOW. You can buy them around 1-2 PM when the market is steady without much weakness.
For other stocks, I suggest you to take a look at Brazil stocks on my pick list.
If you focus on some long-term investments, I have already recommended a Vietnam holding before: PINK:VTOPF, maybe you can have a look.
[CEO] this baby has had correction and I think it's time for her to show some strength as OIL rises.
Chinese telecom stocks may have another swing up, such as CN CHU CHA, today is their first day up and I expect 2-3 another upward swing.
These H-share ADRs can be loaded if and only if the market is set to green today with more than 60 points gain of DOW. You can buy them around 1-2 PM when the market is steady without much weakness.
For other stocks, I suggest you to take a look at Brazil stocks on my pick list.
If you focus on some long-term investments, I have already recommended a Vietnam holding before: PINK:VTOPF, maybe you can have a look.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Mar-04 Market Summary
We have an incredible turn around today which we have not seen for a while. Still, we hold 12150 today by close, we lost 0.4% for the first two days of this week. As I said for 2 weeks, if we have a while candle stick for this week, then the middle term will be bullish. This is of course still valid.
For next days, we have two days with long shadow at the bottom, which signals a bullish sentiment for next days. Let's wait and see.
Strategies:
1. Fishing Tech, Home Builder during AH if possible.
2. Metal stocks may be cooled down a bit, but this is a correction, I think, watch tight.
Good luck!
For next days, we have two days with long shadow at the bottom, which signals a bullish sentiment for next days. Let's wait and see.
Strategies:
1. Fishing Tech, Home Builder during AH if possible.
2. Metal stocks may be cooled down a bit, but this is a correction, I think, watch tight.
Good luck!
Mar-04 Daily Market Preview
We will have a very tough week ahead, where Friday's job data is a central cocern. Highlights of today:
* Band of Canada may cut rates. The dollar may have less pressure.
* DOW 12150 held yesterday, but this is still critical for today's direction. Most long positions should be reduced and cleared accordingly.
* For minor long positions, still, gold is an option, base metal, agriculture are secondary options. My favorite gold stocks like AUY and ABX hit all time high yesterday. But please be careful, I expect 1050-1100 will be next target for big correction.
* For short positions, if you followed my suggestion to use bond insurers like fre fnm as a hedging position against longs, you should be profitable now. Still, bond insurers are first choice for shorts and puts.
To me, the best strategy here is having more cash and send money back to China to play around A shares. Yesterday, I just took my February profit around 25% (you should not be surprised by looking at my picks) and will send the money back to China, especially in this moment EUR hits all time high agaist USD.
* Band of Canada may cut rates. The dollar may have less pressure.
* DOW 12150 held yesterday, but this is still critical for today's direction. Most long positions should be reduced and cleared accordingly.
* For minor long positions, still, gold is an option, base metal, agriculture are secondary options. My favorite gold stocks like AUY and ABX hit all time high yesterday. But please be careful, I expect 1050-1100 will be next target for big correction.
* For short positions, if you followed my suggestion to use bond insurers like fre fnm as a hedging position against longs, you should be profitable now. Still, bond insurers are first choice for shorts and puts.
To me, the best strategy here is having more cash and send money back to China to play around A shares. Yesterday, I just took my February profit around 25% (you should not be surprised by looking at my picks) and will send the money back to China, especially in this moment EUR hits all time high agaist USD.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Mar-3 Daily Preview
The new week begins with uncertainty around. We have the most important job data on this Friday, which will somehow decide the short term direction of the market.
Regarding today, we see the modest loss at the beginning as BA weights on DOW. However, commodity stocks are continue to outperform. Gold will try 1000 this week or next. Fertilizers are going to test new high if the market goes steady.
With last Friday's sharp decline, I talked about strategies of this week. I repeat, any drop below 12150 is a sell signal. It's not a good time to build short term or mid term long position, while at this stage, extra long term holding can be built with 1-2 times average down prepared. If you are not going to average down, please stay aside.
The market now has 4 declining month in row, therefore I wonder in worse case, we will have a positive month in May. In best case, we will have a positive March. A positive March could be established if we have a positive week now. This is all TA-wise. On FA, I tend to believe the Spring comes around April, when the rate cut really show something.
Good luck for this week!
Regarding today, we see the modest loss at the beginning as BA weights on DOW. However, commodity stocks are continue to outperform. Gold will try 1000 this week or next. Fertilizers are going to test new high if the market goes steady.
With last Friday's sharp decline, I talked about strategies of this week. I repeat, any drop below 12150 is a sell signal. It's not a good time to build short term or mid term long position, while at this stage, extra long term holding can be built with 1-2 times average down prepared. If you are not going to average down, please stay aside.
The market now has 4 declining month in row, therefore I wonder in worse case, we will have a positive month in May. In best case, we will have a positive March. A positive March could be established if we have a positive week now. This is all TA-wise. On FA, I tend to believe the Spring comes around April, when the rate cut really show something.
Good luck for this week!
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Mar-01 Market Summary and Preview
As I said during last weekly summary and preview, I was not optimistic on the market at all, and I also predicted a black candle stick on the weekly chart above 12250 is possible and acceptable. Then we still have chance on the next week.
However, I am also not very optimistic on next week as well. A very obvious sign will be breaking under 12150, which is likely to happen on Monday due to the BA news, in this case, I think any long position will be dangerous. If a large sell-off occurs, it is likely to see a 1500 decline on DOW to test 10700 level on 2006 lows.
If you still have some long positions, I would strongly recommend you to reduce/clear or take some hedge position to protect your investment in the case of another decline under 12150 early next week. There is no safe place in this market. Including DBA and gold might decline as well, although they will come back.
If you have set your mind and hold blue chips tight for longer than 1 year, I think it's OK for you to ignore the current market, because normal people never dare to bottom fish and catch low price stocks and they often buy back when the price goes higher than their selling price.
In a nutshell, a bullish sign will be DOW holds 12150 for Monday and Tuesday, otherwise, it will be very bearish.
However, I am also not very optimistic on next week as well. A very obvious sign will be breaking under 12150, which is likely to happen on Monday due to the BA news, in this case, I think any long position will be dangerous. If a large sell-off occurs, it is likely to see a 1500 decline on DOW to test 10700 level on 2006 lows.
If you still have some long positions, I would strongly recommend you to reduce/clear or take some hedge position to protect your investment in the case of another decline under 12150 early next week. There is no safe place in this market. Including DBA and gold might decline as well, although they will come back.
If you have set your mind and hold blue chips tight for longer than 1 year, I think it's OK for you to ignore the current market, because normal people never dare to bottom fish and catch low price stocks and they often buy back when the price goes higher than their selling price.
In a nutshell, a bullish sign will be DOW holds 12150 for Monday and Tuesday, otherwise, it will be very bearish.
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